Plantation Key, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

958
FXUS62 KKEY 010759
AFDKEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
359 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
A little more active overnight for the Florida Keys and
surrounding coastal waters. Moisture continues to pivot around a
broad, but weakening cyclonic envelop that is sitting across the
Florida Peninsula. This is allowing for weak bands of showers to
move through mainly across the waters surrounding the island chain
and the Lower Keys. Likewise, we continue to see a northwest to
north wind across the area.
.FORECAST...
As Hurricane Imelda continues to trek northeast across the North
Atlantic, high pressure currently descending down from eastern
Canada will slowly move into the eastern U.S. As this occurs, the
gradient across the Keys will temporarily weaken today and allow
for what residual moisture remaining to pool across south Florida
and the Keys. Given a generally northerly steering flow, any
additional showers that develop this afternoon across the
mainland may drift over the Keys. This would tend to favor the
Upper Keys the most.
By Thursday the high will gradually build as it begins to slide
into the western North Atlantic. This will lead to winds locally
shifting around from out of the northeast and freshening. This
will also lead to slightly better rain chances due to a
combination of residual low level moisture and better convergence.
The high will move eastward into the Atlantic by Friday and stall
while building. This will lead to generally easterly flow, along
with an ebb and flow of moisture. As a result, rain chances will
fluctuate depending on when better pockets of moisture move
through. All in all, slightly above normal rain chances are
expected to prevail through the forecast period.
Lastly, northerly swells will continue due in part to departing
Imelda and the subsequent building high across the Atlantic. This
will cause the Gulf Stream to back up and lead to minor coastal
flooding, especially in the Upper Keys.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Hurricane Imelda will continue to track northeastward,
and will allow for higher pressure to build in its place, and
gentle breezes will gradually slacken into Thursday morning. The
high pressure over the Eastern Seaboard will slowly slide eastward
into the western North Atlantic, and build. This will result in
freshening northeast to east breezes starting Thursday afternoon.
Winds will then clock around towards the southeast for the
upcoming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 359 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH for the 06Z TAF
period. Shower chances remain low, however, VCSH has been
introduced for EYW at least for this morning. Short lived MVFR
CIGs may at times move across the terminals. Northwesterly winds
will gradually veer northerly after sunrise and will remain below
10 knots.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  88  79  88  78 /  20  20  30  40
Marathon  88  78  87  78 /  20  30  40  40
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Public/Marine/Fire...LIW
Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW
Data Acquisition.....AJP
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NWS KEY Office Area Forecast Discussion