Princeton, Maine Weather Forecast Discussion

522
FXUS61 KCAR 241116
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
716 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure then builds over the region today, then moves
offshore tonight. Low pressure will approach from the west
Thursday, cross the region Thursday night, then exit across the
Maritimes Friday. A quick cold front will cross the region
Sunday, followed by high pressure returning across the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
7 AM Update: Fog and mist early this morning will lift and
dissipate over the next couple of hours as drier weather settles
in for the day. Minor adjustments made to the forecast based on
current observations and trends, otherwise the previous forecast
remains on track.
Previous Discussion:
Surface high across eastern Quebec Province will drift
southeast through the Canadian Maritime Provinces through
tonight. Moisture trapped below an inversion will result in
mainly cloudy skies across the region this morning with areas of
fog. Expect skies to become partly sunny across across far
northern areas by this afternoon but skies should remain mostly
cloudy across the remainder of the region this afternoon.
Afternoon highs today will range from the upper 60s to near 70.
High pressure continues to drift east through the Canadian Maritimes
tonight. Partly cloudy skies early will give way to increasing
clouds as a warm front approaches. Followed the NBM numbers for
low temperatures tonight. But if thicker cloud cover is slower
to arrive overnight lows could be a bit cooler than currently
advertised. Lows tonight will range from the mid 40s to upper
40s.
Low pressure approaches from the west on Thursday with a wetting
rain overspreading much of the region by afternoon. Rainfall amounts
through Thursday afternoon will generally range from around
one-quarter to one-third of an inch. Afternoon highs will be in
the mid to upper 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The occluding low will continue to push through the state
Thursday night and exit to the east on Friday. A deformation
zone is likely to set up with this low, and the majority of
ensemble members are in agreement that this zone will likely set
up somewhere across Downeast Maine. This will lead to potential
total rainfall amounts exceeding an inch Downeast. A secondary
solution does remain across some ensemble members, which keeps
the low center further north and therefore the deformation zone
further north as well. In this solution, the Downeast region
still gets rain, but likely less than an inch, while the north
ends up with over an inch.
There is also some slight discrepancy in the timing of the low.
Though most ensemble members agree that the bulk of the rainfall
will occur early Thursday night, many EC members suggest a
faster low progression, which in addition to moderate rainfall
ending earlier, could also lead to less total rainfall as the
system moves through more quickly.
Friday will be a day of clearing, with skies in the north
completely clearing out Friday night and in combination with
light winds, could lead to favorable radiational cooling
conditions for temperatures to quickly drop overnight. Lows
could fall into the lower 40s to mid to upper 30s in the north,
and may pose a threat of frost, though most likely in the North
Woods.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A narrow ridge of high pressure returns on Saturday, with clear
skies and temperatures warmer than average. A shortwave may move
through the area on Sunday, which could bring another brief
round of rain showers, mainly for the north. More notable will
be the change in air mass behind the quick moving cold front,
where temperatures will fall back into a more seasonally average
range. High pressure then returns for the beginning of next work
week, and a return of dry weather.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR/KHUL/KPQI: MVFR conditions expected until mid
morning, then VFR through tonight. N wind around 5 kt this
afternoon then light S tonight.
Thurs: VFR in the morning, then MVFR in developing rain. S wind
around 10 kt.
KBGR/KBHB: IFR/VLIFR at times through 12z with conditions below
airport minimums at times. IFR after 12Z will gradually improve
to low end VFR this afternoon. VFR/MVFR tonight. N to NE wind 5
to 10 kt through this afternoon, then light S tonight.
Thurs: MVFR/IFR in developing rain. SE wind around 10 kt.
SHORT TERM:
Thurs night: IFR with rain and low clouds. S wind 5-10 kts,
gradually shifting SW through the night.
Fri: VFR most likely, with a chance of lingering MVFR early. W
wind 5-10 kts.
Fri night - Sat night: Mainly VFR. Winds light and variable.
Sun: Generally VFR, with brief MVFR possible at northern
terminals as showers move through early. W winds 5 to 10 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: An SCA remains in place from Schoodic Point to
Stonington through 8 PM tonight for long period swell around 5
ft. Otherwise, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels
through Thursday.
SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will most likely remain below small
craft advisory levels through the end of the week and into the
weekend. Seas could briefly approach 5 kts on the coastal waters
Thursday night into Friday as a front moves through. Moderate to
heavy rain possible Thursday night into Friday, and could limit
visibility.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ051.
&&
$$
Near Term...AStrauser/TWD
Short Term...AStrauser
Long Term...AStrauser
Aviation...AStrauser/TWD/AStrauser
Marine...AStrauser/TWD/AStrauser

NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion