Protem, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

072
FXUS63 KSGF 101714
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1214 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 20% chance of showers and storms mainly south and west of
  Springfield late this afternoon and evening.
- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions through at least
  this weekend. Some record highs may be approached.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 237 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Similar to yesterday, an upstream thunderstorm complex is in
play for our area today. The complex is currently over SW KS,
resulting in a later arrival time of late afternoon into the
western CWA. Expect the system to diminish as it moves toward
and into the area, with only remnant isolated to scattered
convection into this evening hours, mainly for areas west and
south of Springfield. No severe weather threat exists.
Look for highs in the mid 80s to low 90s today, coolest west.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 237 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
The pattern currently features a mid-level ridge over the
intermountain west and NW flow over the CWA. This pattern
gradually shifts east, as is well agreed on by models. This
results in mostly dry conditions and warming temperatures.
Normal high temperatures are in the low to mid 80s, but the
forecast is for highs in the low to mid 90s into next week, with
the hottest day being Saturday when potential exists for upper
90s highs. Forecast high temperatures are within 5 degrees for
quite a few of these days (see Climate section).
Looking at next week, models continue to diverge on the
pattern. About 25% of ensemble members are clustered in showing
a mid-level trough over the Great Lakes with the southwestern
periphery of that trough extending through our area. This is a
lower percentage of members showing this type of feature and the
mean of these members isn`t as deep than 24 hours ago. This
would result in somewhat cooler temperatures and chances for
rain. Chances for rain that were in the forecast 24 hours ago
have been removed given the trend away from seeing the trough.
Given the majority of ensemble members are showing a ridge over
the area, the forecast calls for dry conditions with highs in
the mid 90s into the middle of next week.
Looking at rainfall patterns through the rest of the month, the
ensembles have been trending slightly wetter. While previous
runs showed negative precip anomalies through much or all of
September, latest runs show neutral anomalies (near normal
rainfall) for the last 10 days or so of the month. Drought will
continue to expand and worsen until more substantive rainfall
occurs.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
For the 18z TAFS, still have some showers west of the CWA from
an MCS which has decayed. A few convective allowing models show
this activity still making it into western MO so will continue
with a prob30 this afternoon and early evening at JLN. Outside
of that, we are expecting a light southerly wind(10kts or less)
and VFR conditions.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 237 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Values listed below are for sites where the forecast is within
5 degrees of a record.
Record High Temperatures:
September 10:
KSGF: 96/1984
September 11:
KSGF: 96/2000
KUNO: 96/1953
September 12:
KSGF: 97/1939
KJLN: 97/1956
KVIH: 98/1897
KUNO: 96/1980
September 13:
KSGF: 99/2011
KVIH: 96/1956
KUNO: 96/1980
September 14:
KSGF: 102/1893
KUNO: 99/1954
September 15:
KSGF: 98/1893
KVIH: 97/1897
KUNO: 98/1954
September 16:
KSGF: 95/2019
KVIH: 96/1954
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Lindenberg
CLIMATE...Titus

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion