895 FXUS64 KJAN 190241 AAA AFDJANArea Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 941 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...
.MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 939 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
The early evening isolated showers and thunderstorms have dissipated. Regional radars still showed a few showers over central Arkansas that should dissipate before dropping into our CWA. No additional convection is expected the remainder of the night. /22/
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Today & Tonight...
This afternoon we can expect a few showers across the area, with a couple of cells overachieving and producing some lightning. Altogether it should be relatively quiet, and hopefully areas that need some rainfall will receive although; projected totals do not even exceed a quarter inch. Tonight there could be some fog/mist development especially along and in low lying areas, that will be dependent primarily on if those areas see any of the aforementioned precipitation.
Tomorrow through Next Thursday...
Quiet conditions will prevail across the CWA for the rest of the week, with a slight chance of an isolated shower or two (and thunderstorm) mainly along northwestern portions of the area through the weekend.
Rain chances will begin to pickup starting next week to about 20-30% across all zones, due to a shift in the overall upper air pattern bringing a broad trough and northwest flow over AR/LA/MS. Expect diurnally driven convection for the afternoon through early next week which could have severe characteristics, so it is advised to stay apprised of all current updates regarding next week`s weather pattern./OAJ/
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.AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 634 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
An isolated -TSRA may come in vcty of GLH and MEI through 02Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. /22/
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 69 94 68 94 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 68 94 68 95 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 68 94 68 95 / 0 10 0 0 Hattiesburg 68 95 68 96 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 67 94 68 94 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 69 93 68 94 / 0 10 0 0 Greenwood 68 95 67 95 / 0 10 0 0
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.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. &&
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22/OAJ/22
NWS JAN Office Area Forecast Discussion