Quick, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

483
FXUS61 KRLX 181104
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
704 AM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and mostly dry weather prevails into the weekend under
high pressure. Potential for rain returns to the forecast next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 140 AM Thursday...
Surface high pressure will sit squarely over the region starting
today, and upper-level ridging will build in from the west.
As a result, we can expect light winds and very few clouds,
while afternoon relative humidity values dip into the 25-35%
range for many lower elevation locations. There could be a bit
of valley fog to start the period, but that should burn off
within an hour or two of sunrise. Increasingly dry air under the
high pressure regime would seem to make fog tonight less likely,
even with clear skies and calm winds. It will be much warmer
than normal across the area, with lower-elevation highs
generally mid-80s to around 90 degrees, and the mountains
getting into the 70s and lower 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 155 AM Thursday...
The upper level ridging will remain in control of the weather
pattern through at least Friday. There are some hints in the
model data that a weak trough or surface front could move south
from the Great Lakes later Friday or Friday night. A few
solutions even show some speckles of QPF over northern WV and
southeast OH. But given the very dry air such a feature would
be moving into, as well as the upper ridging delivering some
subsidence, it seems rather  unlikely that any rain actually
makes it to our area, and the forecast for now reflects no rain
chances.
However, in a bit of a change from last night`s forecast, there
are now some coherent signs in the guidance that an upper-level
trough axis may shift east from the Mississippi Valley far
enough to displace the upper ridging over the weekend. This in
turn could bring some low-end rain chances to the CWA. At this
time, given expected limited moisture availability, the best
chances are expected to be in and near the mountains, where the
topography may help kick off convection more easily. Regardless,
any shower activity is likely to be more on the light side, and
mainly isolated in nature, so it won`t be a major drought relief
by any stretch.
The unseasonable warmth continues in this period, with highs
each day likely similar to today`s forecast, though if any
showers to spring up in the mountains, that might keep them a
bit cooler.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 AM Thursday...
The seesawing forecast of precipitation chances continues for
next work week. The most recent guidance shifts a bit towards
favoring an active stretch with a slow-moving trough encroaching
from the west giving us persistent upper-level SW`ly flow and
the potential for waves to move along it. However, the guidance
isn`t entirely in agreement, with the GFS suite showing a
stronger ridge that takes longer to break down, while the CMC
and Euro both show a somewhat faster eastward progression of the
trough.
At this point, the long-range forecast reflects both this
uncertainty and the run-to-run inconsistency in the forecast
models, with forecast POPs generally kept to 35% or less for
Tuesday and Wednesday. And the forecast could go either way - it
could swing back drier, and given recent conditions it is
understandable to be pessimistic, but it could also start to
show more certainty of a wet period, where we stay `under the
gun` of persistent rain chances which could start to add up.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 700 AM Wednesday...
Valley fog has developed mostly across the southern coalfields
and around the EKN area, but there ais also some patchy fog
noted on the Ohio River near PKB and in the Elk River valley
near CRW. EKN will likely keep some fog initially in the period,
and given the potential for a `sunrise surprise`, a TEMPO group
is tentatively put in for CRW and PKB. Regardless, any valley
fog should burn off by around 13z, with clear skies and light
winds expected the rest of the period. Increasingly dry air
across the region would seem to make valley fog less likely
tonight, so none was put into the grids or TAFs, but a VCFG
mention was put into EKN late tonight.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of valley fog tonight
into Thursday morning may vary from the forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FK
NEAR TERM...FK
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...FK

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion