Quinter, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

796
FXUS63 KGLD 290618
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1218 AM MDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- South winds at 15-25 mph may occasionally gust up to 40 mph
  Monday afternoon (similar to Sunday).
- There is a low (20-25%) chance for isolated thunderstorms in
  eastern Colorado Monday evening (~5-11 pm MDT). Severe
  weather is not anticipated.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1213 AM MDT Mon Sep 29 2025
This morning, as a weak 500 mb low slowly pushes across the
Rockies, we will see partly cloudy skies in the upper levels.
Due to a lack of moisture, we`re not expected much in the way of
lower level clouds, but temperatures are forecast to cool off
into the 50s this morning. There is a 30% chance winds overnight
keep us sufficiently mixed, which would keep temperatures east
of the Colorado border around 60.
During the day, as the bulk of the 500 mb low moves across the
Rockies, an 850 mb low will also form, albeit fairly weak.
Paired with the high pressure system south of the Great Lakes,
southerly flow will be efficient. Much like Sunday, we are
expecting breezy conditions, but nothing out of the norm for
the High Plains. Southerly winds sustained around 15-20 kts
with most gusts around 25-30 kts and occasional gusts up around
35 are expected. This will also allow temperatures to warm into
the low to mid 80s across the area, slightly cooler than Sunday
thanks to additional upper level clouds.
Around the 0-6Z time frame, as the 850 mb low detaches from the
Rockies and moves east, storms across eastern Colorado have a
20-25% chance of forming. Winds from a dry microburst or dry
lightning are the main hazards with these storms. If one of
these storms produces strong to severe winds (2% chance),
blowing dust would likely kick up and reduce visibility. CAPE
will be limited, likely around 400-800 J/kg, and the shear
profile will be weak, leading to a very low severe weather
threat. These storms, if they impact the area, will be quickly
moving to the north- northeast, and would likely impact areas
west of a line from Trenton, NE to Tribune, KS.
There is a second area of interest, over the eastern CWA, during
this same time frame. The NAM, RAP, and GFS all show a line of
enhanced 500 mb vorticity over the eastern CWA, where the low
and high are colliding. Beneath that, at 850 mb, this is also
where a weak dry line will be setting up on the eastern edge of
the LLJ. Chances for anything firing in this area is lower,
around 10-15%.
Overnight, temperatures are forecast to cool into the 50s, very
similar to Monday morning. Precipitation should be completely
clear of the area by 7-8Z.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
The upper level (200-300mb) flow splits Tuesday into Wednesday,
with one branch of the jet stream diving east- southeastward
across the Southern Plains and Deep South and the other lifting
northeastward across the Pacific Northwest. This leaves the High
Plains and much of the Great Basin Regions under weak forcing,
though there is still some enhanced 500mb vorticity lingering
overhead into Wednesday. Thus, we can`t rule out a stray shower
or storm (10-15% of LREF membership have it) Tuesday night into
Wednesday, particularly if something can get going over the
Front Range, as 500-850mb (steering) flow would take it
northeastward into the tri-state region. However, confidence is
unusually low given the lack of forcing and (lack of) deep
moisture. Otherwise, expect above normal temperatures to
continue through the middle of the week with highs in the low to
mid 80s; for reference, normal highs are in the mid 70s for
late September and early October. Deterministic global models
seem to agree that the surface pressure gradient will relax a
bit by Wednesday, offering a brief repose from the gusty south
winds, but there are some early indications those will pick back
up by the end of the work week.
Given potential influence by a pair of tropical systems in the
mid Atlantic, the upper level pattern becomes increasingly
nebulous Thursday and beyond. In general, deterministic and
ensemble guidance suggest a positively tilted ridge will build
from the Desert Southwest or Southern Plains northeastward into
the Midwest, but then (28.00z) cluster analysis suggests
differences crop up in how amplified that ridge becomes and how
quickly it shifts east or is eroded on the western flank by one
or more troughs developing across the West. By the start of the
weekend, we`ve got 3 potential outcomes: The first (55% chance)
features a trough developing in the Great Basin and nudging into
our area, resulting in an onset of active weather, which could
include storms, wind, and perhaps a temperature swing along a
front by Friday night or Saturday. The second (25% chance)
maintains relatively zonal flow over our area and keeps any
trough(s) across the Northern Tier and Canadian Prairies,
suggesting our weather would be tranquil with little to no storm
chances and near to slightly above normal temperatures (upper
70s to low 80s). The third (20% chance) builds a strong ridge
over the Great Basin and Plains, suggesting light winds, dry
conditions, and much warmer than normal temperatures (mid 80s to
around 90). While our deterministic forecast remains subject to
considerable changes for this late week period, confidence
information will be included here; stay tuned for updates.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1103 PM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK
through the period. Overnight tonight, winds are expected to
waiver between 190 and 170 depending on how much of the low
level jet mixes down. Lighter winds will be from around 170,
while any stronger winds will be from around 190. Generally, the
low level jet will not be mixing to the surface, which will lead
to low level wind shear from 190 at 40 kts, around 500 feet AGL.
After sunrise, once the inversion weakens, winds from the
southeast will increase, similar to Sunday`s winds.
KGLD could see some isolated showers and storms Monday evening.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Bumgardner
AVIATION...CA

NWS GLD Office Area Forecast Discussion