Quinton, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

071
FXUS61 KAKQ 191736
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
136 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure settles overhead today, with a brief (but
noticeable) warmup during the day. A backdoor front drops
southward through the area Saturday, bringing a return to
seasonably cool and cloudy conditions this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1004 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Dry and above normal temperatures today.
- Patchy fog will likely develop across the area again tonight.
Patchy to dense fog has finally started to lift across the local
area, with some low clouds still lingering in NE NC. High pressure
and weak ridging aloft has set up across the region and these low
clouds are forecast to scatter out over the next hour or so. Winds
are generally light and variable this morning and temperatures are
already climbing into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Sunny skies and
well above normal temperatures are forecast for today as the ridge
aloft and surface high remain in place. Temperatures will peak in
the mid to upper 80s, though some MOS guidance is suggesting that a
few areas could potentially reach 90 degrees this afternoon. A front
will linger to our north but not make much ground southward today.
By tonight, this front will start to edge its way closer to the
forecast area, but still remain north of us. Mostly clear skies and
light winds will continue overnight, so cooler temperatures (lower
60s, with some inland areas possibly seeing the upper 50s) and areas
of fog are likely once again.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- A backdoor cold front crosses the area on Saturday, dropping
  temperatures to near to slightly below average for the
  weekend with mainly dry weather.
Strong (1030+ mb) high pressure builds down in Quebec and northern
New England early Saturday. This synoptic pattern will push a
southward-moving backdoor cold front through the area early
Saturday. This front will be mostly dry with only a slight
chance of precip across the piedmont Saturday afternoon. Cooler
temperatures will follow in the wake of the front with high
temperatures in the upper 70s across the Eastern Shore and lower
80s elsewhere (further south may see mid 80s as the front
slowly moves N-S) on Saturday. Sunday, high temperatures will be
slightly cooler with highs in the mid 70s N/NE and upper 70s
elsewhere... just below the average for the time of year. Low
temperatures will remain similar in the lower 60s. The front
will likely stall somewhere near the area and the coastal trough
offshore the Carolinas will likely strengthen allowing for a
coastal low pressure to form. This could bring extra moisture to
the area Sunday and Monday, but the confidence is low at this
time. With this in mind, have only included slight chance of
precip Sunday into Monday near the coast. If the low were to
materialize more, it could result in an under-performance in
high temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 340 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Mainly dry with near to slightly above average temperatures early
  next week.
- Rain chances and cooler temperatures potentially return by the
  middle and end of next week.
Upper heights rise a bit early next week as ridging builds offshore
of the SE CONUS coast and a strong upper low dives into the central
Plains. The model guidance continues to show the high pressure to
the south of the area by early next week. This would favor a warming
trend due to developing return flow out of the S. Highs Monday
around 80 F, with low-mid 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain chances
return by the middle to later portions of next week due to the
approaching upper low and trough, which is expected to advance
eastward through the MS Valley during the middle and end of next
week as high pressure returns to the Quebec region. This will bring
slightly below average temperatures to the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 136 PM EDT Friday...
VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the evening
into early overnight hours. Similar to last night, the development
of fog is expected, so have put in MVFR VIS at all sites for now,
though these may need to be decreased further if it becomes more
evident that dense fog will develop. Winds will remain light and
variable through tomorrow. As a cold front approaches the area,
winds will shift to the NE and start to increase.
Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions expected into Saturday outside of any
morning patchy fog. A back door cold front will move into the area
Saturday night with sub-VFR CIGs possible behind the front.&&
.MARINE...
As of 340 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Benign marine conditions continue through tonight.
- A back door cold front crosses the coast early Saturday and this
will bring the potential for SCA conditions by Saturday night and
Sunday as high pressure builds to the north.
Weak high pressure is centered over the Carolinas early this
morning. The wind is WSW 5-10kt. Seas are ~2ft, with ~1ft waves in
the Ches. Bay. Weak high pressure remains in vicinity of the Mid-
Atlantic coast today into tonight. The wind will primarily be S to
SW less than 10kt, with a late aftn/early evening shift to S to SE.
Seas remain ~2ft with ~1ft waves in the Ches. Bay. A backdoor cold
front crosses the coast early Saturday as 1030mb high pressure
builds SE near the QB/ON border. This area of high pressure then
builds across New England and Atlantic Canada Saturday night into
Sunday. This combined with an inverted trough/weak surface low off
the Carolina coast will result in a tightening pressure gradient
later Saturday night into Sunday. The initial wind shift to NE
Saturday will only be 5-10kt, but will then increase to 10-15kt
later in the aftn. By later Saturday night and Sunday a NE wind is
expected to increase to 15-20kt with gusts approaching 25kt for the
ocean, lower Ches. Bay, lower James River, and the Currituck Sound.
Seas build to 4-6ft, with 2-3ft waves in the Ches. Bay, and
potentially 3-4ft at the mouth of the Bay. SCAs are likely for the
coastal Atlantic (especially for seas) as well as the lower Ches.
Bay, lower James River, and Currituck Sound. Of note, the 19/00z NAM
has a more distinct surface low and produces high-end SCA conditions
S of Parramore Is. and including the lower Ches. Bay. However, at
this time, local wind probs for wind gusts > 25kt are 30-40% over
the ocean S of Parramore Is., and less than 20% for the lower Bay.
The pressure gradient relaxes early next week as high pressure
builds S into the region and then nudges offshore by midweek. Seas
will be slow to subside Monday, but sub-SCA conditions should
gradually return and then prevail for the entire marine area by the
middle of next week.
A low risk of rip currents is expected today for all area beaches.
For now, a low risk has been maintained for Saturday as the NE wind
will initially be slow to increase. The current outlook for Sunday
is moderate. However, the risk may jump to high depending on how
strong the NE wind is at the coast and how quickly nearshore waves
build to 4-5ft.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...NB
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC/SW
AVIATION...KMC/NB
MARINE...AJZ

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion