Ramsay, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

543
FXUS63 KMQT 302254
AFDMQT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
654 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and low impact weather continues through the work week.
- Unseasonable warmth returns this weekend with daytime highs
  15-20 degrees above normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Afternoon GOES Satellite imagery and RAP analysis reveal mostly
clear skies overhead the UP save for some high clouds advecting in
from the SE as the upper ridge axis slowly parks itself atop the
Great Lakes. At the sfc, strong high pressure centering over James
Bay is allowing breezy E flow across the Upper Peninsula. This should
keep today`s highs in the upper 60s to near 70 across the northern
lakeshores and east half while the west and s-central poke into the
mid to upper 70s. A few weak embedded shortwave ripples within broad
troughing occuring across the High Plains and W Minnesota will help
to increase cloud cover tonight. No precip is expected given the
lack of forcing and dry boundary layer in place. Tonight, temps fall
to near 50 interior, a few degrees warmer near the lake shores.
More of the same is expected tomorrow (Wednesday) as the ridge axis
continues its slow eastward progression. Breezy winds veer more
southeasterly. Incoming mid-high clouds may help keep forecast high
temperatures a few degrees more muted than previously seen.
Unseasonable warmth 15 to 20 degrees above normal for early October
returns again during the late week into this weekend, mirroring a
similar stretch of warm October weather seen in 2023. Then, several
daily record highs were set and we could make another run at them.
As the ridge axis shifts into the eastern seaboard Thursday, deep
troughing makes landfall on the US west coast thus opening the flood
gates for warm southerly return flow into the central Plains and
Upper Great Lakes. NAEFS analysis suggests 850 mb temps near 15-17C
this weekend is in the upper echelon of climatology for this time of
year (near 99th percentile). This translates to high temps pushing
the upper 70s and low to mid 80s the entire weekend.
Alongside the unseasonable warmth, showers and thunderstorms are
possible along a warm frontal boundary sometime Fri/Sat. At this
time the details remain murky, and deterministic guidance has
trended precipitation further north. Opting to continue NBM PoPs
at this time. Should we remain precip free, breezy southerly
winds coinciding unseasonable warmth may bring limited to
elevated fire weather conditions this weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 654 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
While mid to high-level cloud cover moves over the U.P. tonight
through Wednesday, VFR conditions are projected to continue as sfc
high pressure ridging remains over us.
Moving into the overnight hours, expect easterly winds to become
southeast to southerly before picking up again during the day
Wednesday. While we could flirt with low-level turbulence (LLT)
across the area tonight, thinking the chances for an hour of two of
marginal LLT are up to around 30% across the TAF sites.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 139 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Breezy E to ENE 15-25 kt winds, mainly across the western arm of
Lake Superior, persist this afternoon before briefly falling below
20 kts lake wide this evening while veering to the SE. Breezy
southerly flow is expected to linger through much of the late week
and into the coming weekend with the central and eastern lake
routinely receiving 25 kts gusts through the period.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...BW

NWS MQT Office Area Forecast Discussion