Randle, Washington Weather Forecast Discussion

626
FXUS66 KSEW 271018
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
318 AM PDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...A frontal system will clip the northern portions of
Western Washington today, bringing light rain. Another frontal
system will move through the region Sunday through Monday bringing
widespread precipitation. An active weather pattern is favored
through late next week as additional frontal systems are expected to
impact the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...Latest radar imagery as of 2 AM
shows scattered light showers moving through portions of Western
Washington early this morning. Most of the showers are to the north
(particularly the north coast and north of Everett). However, some
showers have also developed across Puget Sound. This light shower
activity is expected to continue throughout the day today across the
northern portions of Western Washington as a frontal system clips
the northern part of the region. Rainfall amounts are expected to
remain light, generally 0.10 or less. However, the north coast may
see up to 0.30 inches. Widespread rain is expected Sunday and Monday
a frontal system pushes through Western Washington. Thunderstorms
remain possible Sunday evening, with a 10%-20% chance along the
coast. Another chance (10%-15%) for thunderstorms is possible along
the Cascades and foothills Sunday afternoon. Rainfall amounts
with this frontal system from Sunday to Monday will be around
0.25-1.00 inches for the interior and 1.00-2.00 inches for the
coast.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...Ensemble guidance continues to
generally favor unsettled conditions to continue into next week, as
additional frontal systems are expected to impact the region.
Guidance is in good agreement that a low pressure system will drop
down from the Gulf of Alaska Tuesday into Wednesday and remain
offshore. However, there is some uncertainty regarding the forecast
Thursday and Friday. As for Thursday, differences become apparent
between the deterministic models. The GFS model has the center of
the low pressure system moving southward into Oregon/California,
which favors a slightly drier solution for Western Washington. The
European model has the center of the low pressure system moving
inland into Western Washington, which favors a wetter solution. At
this time, the majority of ensemble members (85%) seem to favor a
solution similar to the European model. Uncertainty continues into
Friday, with ensemble members being almost evenly split between weak
ridging and troughing over Western Washington. Moreover, guidance
continues to show a small chance of thunder next week, with
probabilities between 10%-20%.
29
&&
.AVIATION...West-southwesterly flow aloft, with light showers over
the northern half of western Washington as a frontal system brushes
the area. VFR cigs for most areas this morning, with ceilings at or
above 5 kft. The only exception being periods of MVFR cigs
associated with light precipitation. There is a 10% chance of
ceilings at or below 3kft from KPWT to KOLM, and 40 to 50% chance
along the coast. Overall VFR conditions are expected to continue for
the for most locations Saturday, with lower cigs lingering along the
coast through midday. Light S/SE surface winds will become more
westerly and northwesterly for much of the interior during the
afternoon and evening.
KSEA...VFR conditions with mid and high clouds through the morning
with a few light rain showers possible early. Ceilings will lift and
scatter out by late afternoon, then build back in by 4-6Z, with a 40-
50% chance of ceilings at or below 3kft by 14z. Light SE winds
tonight may become VRB between 12-18z then W/NW during the afternoon
into the evening.
&&
.MARINE...An approaching frontal system will bring lower
ceilings/visibilities and showers over the coastal waters during the
afternoon with elevated seas, 8-11 ft through the weekend. An
additional frontal system Sunday into Monday will maintain elevated
seas at or around 7-9 ft Sunday through Monday. Ensembles now
showing anywhere between 80 to 100% odds of small craft advisory
winds and gusts over the coastal waters, and the interior waters
(particularly East Strait of Juan de Fuca and Northern Inland
Waters) Sunday into Monday. A stronger system digging southward from
Alaska Tuesday and Wednesday will likely increase seas up to 10-15
ft Tuesday into Thursday, with increased odds of strengthened south
winds in the coastal waters, Strait of Juan de Fuca and interior
waters.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for Coastal
     Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Coastal
     Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
     60 Nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Coastal
     Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm.
&&
$$

NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion