Ree Heights, South Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

132
FXUS63 KABR 051906
AFDABR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
206 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures remain around 10 to 15 degrees below normal tonight
through Sunday.
- Patchy frost will be possible Saturday morning over portions of
north central South Dakota (mainly western Corson County), and
Sunday morning over a larger portion of the forecast area as low
temperatures fall into the mid to upper 30s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Much of the morning to early afternoon hours have been showery over
portions of eastern South Dakota, mainly east of the James River.
Additional showers moved in from ND across portions of north central
SD by late morning. The loss of daytime heating will diminish the
coverage and strength of these showers. The stacked surface-500mb
low near James Bay Canada will continue to rotate shortwave energy
through our area early this afternoon, tonight, and again over our
far eastern areas Saturday afternoon. Clouds will be the main result.
At 19Z the surface weather map showed high pressure over much of
KS, but a ridge extending across western SD, eastern MT, and
Saskatchewan. A large exiting low was set up near James Bay
Canada. This was keeping gusty northwest to northerly winds over
our forecast area, with gusts 30-35mph.
Winds out of the northwest to west will slowly diminish to around 10
mph or less by 06Z Saturday. The below normal temperatures continue.
Expect lows near 40 degrees tonight, with a few locations getting
into the mid to upper 30s (mainly over north central SD - closer to
the surface ridge and lighter winds). Patchy frost remains possible
over portions of central SD, with the main focus being western
Corson County - away from the Missouri River. A Frost Advisory has
been issued for Corson County.
The surface ridge slowly shifts over central and eastern SD/west
central MN by Saturday afternoon. A ridge of high pressure over
western South Dakota will slowly edge across central and eastern
South Dakota Saturday afternoon. Any shower development will be less
than today, and farther east. Winds Saturday will be out of the
north to northwest 10 to 15 mph. Fire weather wise, central SD
continues we`ll be monitoring to slowly dry out fuel wise. Relative
humidity values Saturday afternoon will be in the 30% range over
Jones County. 40-50% minimum relative humidity values will be common
over much of the rest of the area, especially east of the Missouri
River. Lighter winds and the potential for 1-4F degrees lower Sunday
morning may result in frost/freeze headlines being needed.
The ridge of high pressure will exit across Iowa on Sunday, with
winds increasing out of the south. The strongest winds of 15 to 20
mph, with gusts of 25 to 30 mph, will be across central South Dakota
Sunday afternoon.
Dry weather looks to remain in place tonight through at least
Tuesday night. The 500mb ridge over eastern WA/OR and ID looks to
finally move over the Northern Plains by 12Z Wednesday. There is
plenty of uncertainty, with about 1/2 of the model guidance
indicating more high amplitude ridging with the other half showing
more flattening of the ridge. We`ll keep the 10-25% chances of
precipitation that are currently in the forecast late Wednesday
through Friday, knowing that this forecast will change.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1029 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
While VFR conditions will be occur most of this period, MVFR
ceilings will be possible through mid afternoon as they sink south
from ND along with light showers. The highest chance of MVFR
ceilings will remain at ATY, most likely through mid afternoon and
again 12-18Z Saturday.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM MDT Saturday for SDZ003.
MN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...06

NWS ABR Office Area Forecast Discussion