249 FXUS65 KGGW 161019 AFDGGWArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 419 AM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Unsettled pattern will sustain isolated to scattered thunderstorms at times over the region through tonight.
- Drier weather conditions are expected for the second half of the week with seasonable temperatures continuing.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
Multiple low pressure systems in the region are keeping precipitation chances elevated across NE MT, but coverage remains spotty and the forcing is relatively weak. Precip model data continues to struggle with exact timing and placement of these showers and thunderstorms. This trend of messy, hit or miss small storms will persist through tonight.
Later this week, the weather pattern will establish something a little more organized with the complex upper low moving into the northern plains. Brief ridging occurs over Montana on Friday before another Pacific shortwave pulls a strong upper jet across the northern Rockies over the weekend. Overall weather will be generally warm and dry.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
PoPs have been adjusted with hi-res models for Day 1 and 2 due to the NBM under forecasting precipitation chances.
Low confidence in the exact timing and placement of shower activity through tonight.
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.AVIATION... Mainly VFR. Unsettled weather pattern with multiple low pressure systems in the region will keep the threat around for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms through this TAF cycle. Some MVFR conditions are possible with the showers/storms.
EQUIPMENT: NOTAM comms issues with the KSDY observation remain. AMD NOT SKED will remain in place until METARs are available.
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.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
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weather.gov/glasgow
NWS GGW Office Area Forecast Discussion