Rio Bravo, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

516
FXUS64 KCRP 021124
AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
624 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 620 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
- Hazardous beach conditions this weekend becoming more likely due
  to minor coastal flooding.
- Increased risk of dangerous swimming conditions due to rip
  currents this weekend. Please use caution at the beach!
- Daily low to medium (20-50%) chance of showers and storms Friday
  into early next week. When thunder roars, go indoors!
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
We`ll start off today mainly dry across the area with only a very
low (10%) chance of showers/storms along the seabreeze over the
inland Coastal Plains this afternoon as moisture starts to increase.
A broad mid-level low over the northern Gulf Coast will sag
southwest into the northwestern Gulf this weekend, then slowly move
westward into Mexico early next week before a mid-level ridge
dominates over the southern Great Plains the middle of next week.
Being in the vicinity of the mid-level low will induce mid-level
lift support and increase moisture to near the 75th percentile
with PWATs (1.5-1.75"). This combination in addition to surface
heating and the afternoon seabreeze, will allow for a low to medium
(20-50%) chance of showers and thunderstorms daily beginning Friday
and continuing into early next week. Greatest chances will remain
over the open waters, coast, and along the seabreeze.
Our main concerns will remain focused on dangerous swimming
conditions and hazardous beach conditions this weekend, with minor
coastal flooding becoming more likely and an increased risk of rip
currents. Although ensemble uncertainty (10-90th percentile)
remains quite high between 1.7-2.0ft MSL at Aransas Pass, there are
several factors in play: astronomical high tide approaching with a
full moon phase, swell periods around 8 seconds, and moderate
northeasterly winds inducing the Ekman transport mechanism. Please
use caution if going to the beach!
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Have fog at VCT with VSBYs dropping as low as 4SM. Should
dissipate after sunrise with VFR conditions across South Texas.
Light and variable winds will veer southeast towards late
afternoon. Overnight, mostly VFR conditions but have included MVFR
VSBYs for VCT for fog Friday morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
A light to gentle northeasterly to easterly breeze (BF 2-3) will
continue through Thursday night before increasing to a moderate to
strong breeze (BF 4-6) Friday and continuing through Saturday
evening, hovering around advisory criteria. Winds are expected to
decrease to a gentle to moderate breeze (BF 3-4) Sunday with winds
shifting east to southeasterly early next week. Low shower and
thunderstorm chances return Thursday night, then increase to a
medium to high, 50-80% chance this weekend. Medium rain chances of
30-50% will persist heading into the middle of next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Afternoon minimum relative humidity will generally range from 25-35%
across the Inland Coastal Plains and Brush Country through Friday.
Moisture increases Saturday into early next week with minimum
relative humidity above 30%. Although Energy Release Component
ranges from 50th-90th percentile, weak surface and 20 ft winds will
limit the fire risk. Slightly above normal temperatures will
continue with low to medium (20-50%) shower and thunderstorm chances
Friday and continuing into the middle of next week, mainly along the
afternoon seabreeze over the inland Coastal Plains and along the
coast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    92  72  90  74 /   0   0  40  20
Victoria          94  68  92  67 /  10   0  30  10
Laredo            96  72  96  71 /   0   0  10   0
Alice             95  68  93  69 /  10   0  30  10
Rockport          91  74  89  75 /   0  10  50  30
Cotulla           97  70  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        93  68  91  71 /  10   0  40  20
Navy Corpus       88  77  87  78 /  10  10  50  40
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...EMF/94
AVIATION...BF/80

NWS CRP Office Area Forecast Discussion