Roberta, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

991
FXUS62 KFFC 251046
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
646 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 618 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
- A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms through the
   weekend.
- Cooler temperatures, near seasonal normals, expected behind the
   cold front, starting Today.
- High uncertainty in forecast beyond this weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 342 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Current mosaic radar loop shows a line of showers associated with
the main frontal boundary pushing into NW GA this morning. This
front will continue to move slowly SE Today bringing showers and
thunderstorms to the entire area through the short term. The front
is expected to move into central GA this afternoon/evening and
stall through Fri afternoon before moving east of the area Sat
morning. This front does not appear to be as organized as
originally thought and instability indices are not expected to be
a strong this afternoon. We could still see and isolated severe
storm or two but it looks like the best location will be mainly
across eastern portions of the state where the marginal risk is
located. We could still see another 1 to 1.5 inches of precip over
the next 24 to 48 hours but looks like the widespread threat for
flooding may be over. There could still see some isolated areas
of flooding that are prone to poor drainage, but the areas that
are expect to see the heavies downpours Today and Friday can
handle the expected rainfall.
With the expected cloud cover and precip Temps today will be a lot
cooler with highs mainly in the lower 80s. Areas of east central
GA will still get up into the lower 80s as the front wont be able
to make it that far south to hinder prime daytime heating. Day
time highs Friday will se all locations in the lower to middle
80s. Lows tonight will be in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
No changes made to the extended periods. The longterm outlook
will be heavily dependent on conditions in the Atlantic over the
coming days. A relatively low latitude upper level blocking
pattern over the western Atlantic is causing chaos in up stream
flow development. So, lets start by addressing the elephant in the
room. The NHC has two 80% regions of potential tropical
development in the western Atlantic over the next 7 days. Models,
including the ECMWF and its ensemble, GEFS, and HAFS have
continued to try developing at least 1 tropical system in the
area. At the same time, the upper level trough which is bringing
our short term PoPs, begins to stall as it runs into the upper
level block. Now, the good news is that no models at this time
have direct impacts from any tropical system. However, the
interplay between 2 (potentially 3) systems is exceptionally
chaotic and adds extreme uncertainty to the forecast beyond the
weekend. Ensemble spread values for wind and height at 250mb and
500mb respectively show anomalously large values within 120hrs.
This discussion is not so much to raise awareness of the tropical
systems themselves, as impacts to the CWA are unlikely, but more
to emphasis that any forecast beyond Sunday will likely see
significant changes/uncertainty over the coming days. Generally,
with the stalling trough pattern and PWATs likely over 1" we can
expect to see some showers and thunderstorms in the cwa most days
from Sunday onward. Otherwise temperatures should be cooler than
they have been with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the
60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Showers and thunderstorms over north GA will move south into
central GA as the frontal boundary moves slowly SE today. Will
see another round of SHRA/TSRA this afternoon with mainly MVFR
and IFR ceilings. Winds are expected to stay mainly out of the SW
(5-10kt) but could see some gusty winds from any direction in and
around any strong storms this afternoon and evening. VSBYs will
be mainly in the VFR to MVFR range but could see some brief
periods of IFR VSBYs associated with periods of heavy precip.
//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Confidence medium to high on all elements.
01
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          82  67  79  64 /  70  50  50  40
Atlanta         82  69  81  65 /  80  40  50  20
Blairsville     75  62  76  59 /  80  30  50  40
Cartersville    82  67  82  62 /  80  30  40  20
Columbus        86  69  84  66 /  80  50  60  20
Gainesville     80  68  80  64 /  80  40  50  40
Macon           88  69  81  66 /  60  50  60  40
Rome            83  67  84  64 /  70  30  40  10
Peachtree City  83  67  82  63 /  70  40  50  20
Vidalia         94  70  86  69 /  20  40  70  60
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...01

NWS FFC Office Area Forecast Discussion