Rock Creek Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

201
FXUS65 KBOI 071525
AFDBOI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
925 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025
.DISCUSSION...No update to current forecast, i.e., clear, dry,
breezy (from the southeast), and warmer through Thursday or
early Friday.   Models differ on moisture from Hurricane
Priscilla south of Baja Calif, but latest GFS and ECM both
carry it east of our CWA as a deep trough off the NW coast
comes inland. Pcpn in our CWA will therefore come from that
trough, mainly Friday night through Sunday night.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. Patchy low stratus south of KMYL this
morning will burn off late this morning. Otherwise, clear.
Surface winds E-SE 5- 15kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL:
SE to S 5-15 kt, becoming S to SW 10- 20 kt around Tue/21Z.
KBOI...VFR and clear. Surface winds: SE 5-10 kt, with
occasional gusts to 15-18 kt late morning through afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night...A high pressure
ridge will remain over the area through the short term. An upper
level trough near Haida Gwaii will gradually move south along
the coast through Thursday, shifting the flow aloft to the
southwest and bringing warmer temperatures to the region. Winds
today will generally be from the southeast and will continue
through Thursday. Temperatures today warm around 5 degrees from
Monday`s highs, with another 5 degrees of warming on Wednesday
and a few more degrees by Thursday. As the system moves south
along the coast, high clouds increase across central OR.
Thursday is likely the warmest day of the period for eastern OR.
LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...The aforementioned trough
will continue to rotate along the coast on Friday, bringing warm
southerly flow to the area. Friday is forecast to be the warmest
day of the period for southwest Idaho. A cold front arrives
late Friday with a 20-40 percent chance of showers, and may keep
temperatures slightly cooler in eastern OR depending on the
position. The trough moves inland by Saturday, with showers
increasing to 40 percent in the valleys and 60-70 percent in the
mountains. Winds become west-northwest on Saturday afternoon
with gusts to 20 to 30 mph during the afternoon behind the
front. Forecast confidence beyond Saturday is low, but favors
much cooler and unsettled early next week with a trough over the
Pacific Northwest. Forecast models continue to struggle with
current and recent tropical systems disrupting and enhancing the
jet stream, particularly in the eastern Pacific near Cabo San
Lucas and in the western Pacific Ocean. Temperatures Friday in
the low 80s across southwest Idaho valleys before cooling 10-20
degrees on Saturday and another 5-10 degrees on Sunday.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.
&&
$$
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DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....SH
SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....KA

NWS BOI Office Area Forecast Discussion