Rosa, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

990
FXUS64 KBMX 061125
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
625 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
A weak disturbance located over Mississippi is helping promote
scattered showers across parts of Central Alabama. Shower activity
will continue off and on throughout the day, moving generally north
to northwest. Greatest chances to see showers will be across western
and southern counties. A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible
this afternoon. The disturbance off to the west will move northward
toward Tennessee/Arkansas as a cold front will begin working
eastward. The cold front will overtake the disturbance and sweep
eastward, bringing higher rain chances across the northern and
central counties by Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.
Rain amounts still look to be limited, however. Although isolated
totals may be higher, rainfall will be less than a half inch for
most places. Areas south of I-20 and east of I-65 may not see much
rain at all.
12
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
By Wednesday, the weak front will work into the area, maintaining 20-
30% rain chances. Ahead of the front, high temperatures are forecast
to be in the mid to upper 80s across central and southern areas. A
slight cooldown is expected toward the end of the week, with 70s to
low 80s Thursday and Friday. Higher terrain areas of east-central
Alabama may be in the low 70s both days. Slight rain chances are
currently forecast for areas east of I-65 on Thursday, as a weak
upper low slides through the area. Light rain and cloud cover are
likely to reinforce cooler temperatures across eastern areas late
week.
Overall, the dry period will remain in place, as the small rain
chances throughout the forecast period will do little to halt
emerging or worsening drought conditions across different parts of
the region. With little relief in sight from a rainfall standpoint,
drought and fire danger is likely to continue, if not worsen,
through next week.
12
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
Widespread MVFR and some isolated IFR stratus conditions can be
expected for a prolonged period of time during the first half of
the day today. Ceilings are forecast to lift to VFR category by
18z at the latest for all terminals, while surface winds continue
to gust out of the east around 20 knots for much of the day. Light
showers are also expected to be in the vicinity of many terminals
through the day, but aren`t expected to cause much in the way of
impacts. Winds will diminish under 10 knots overnight tonight with
potential for low stratus development once again before 12z
Tuesday morning.
56/GDG
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Rain chances are in the forecast today through Wednesday, especially
in northern and western counties. However, as coverage is expected
to be isolated, no widespread wetting rainfall is expected. Any
rainfall amounts will be too light to mitigate the worsening
drought. RH values should remain above 50% each afternoon through
Wednesday. Winds today will be generally easterly to southeasterly
up to 12-15 mph, gusting to 20 mph. Outdoor burning remains highly
discouraged due to ongoing drought conditions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     82  66  83  66 /  20  10  30  50
Anniston    81  67  82  68 /  20  10  20  30
Birmingham  82  69  84  68 /  30  20  30  40
Tuscaloosa  83  70  86  68 /  40  20  30  30
Calera      83  68  85  68 /  30  20  20  30
Auburn      82  66  83  68 /  20  10  10  10
Montgomery  85  68  86  69 /  30  10  10  10
Troy        83  66  84  68 /  30  10  10  10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...56/GDG

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion