Roscoe, Montana Weather Forecast Discussion

061
FXUS65 KBYZ 061908
AFDBYZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
108 PM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warming trend through the weekend leading to above average
  temperatures to start the work week.
- Chance for precipitation in south-central Montana Sunday
  afternoon and evening.
- Wetter pattern expected for the second half of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Through Sunday Night...
High temperatures today are returning to average across the CWA
as some weak ridging builds in on the heals of the powerful trough
drifting eastwards across North America. As the winds at the mid
and upper levels develop more of a westerly component over the
coming hours, the plume of smoke just to the west of the CWA will
slowly make its way eastwards. This will make for hazy skies
across much of the region with the potential for some of this
smoke to mix to the surface, especially Sunday. Expect air quality
to be degraded, especially for the western half of the CWA. There
are also a few fires in Eastern Montana that will produce
localized smoke and poor air quality.
Sunday afternoon a shortwave being ejected off of the parent
trough over the Northeast Pacific Ocean will move through the
region. This will bring a chance for showers and isolated storms
that will be mainly confined to the mountains and foothills.
Whether or not any of these showers make it further east to
impact Billings remains a question at this time. Winds will be
primarily westerly which will keep storms elevated in an
inverted-v sounding environment. Due to the environment, some
gusty winds are possible in the foothills especially but no
strong storms are expected. WMR
Monday through Saturday...
Models have excellent agreement through day 6 (Friday) and have
for several runs now. There is good consensus in ridging
continuing to build in to the region starting on Monday which will
allow for temps to rise well above average. Highs Monday through
Wednesday will likely be 5-15F above average with Tuesday being
the hottest day of the week. Billings has a 50% chance that
Tuesday`s high will be above 85F whereas Miles City has nearly an
80% chance of the same thing.
As we move into midweek, the ridge will quickly break down as a
deep trough is progged to move ashore off the Pacific. Models have
come into even greater agreement this morning that the trough will
stall as it becomes meridional in orientation during the day
Wednesday. This will return most of the region, especially western
parts of the CWA, into a southwesterly flow regime with Pacific
and monsoonal moisture being advected in aloft resulting in
chances for showers and storms.
There is still a signal that we could see some strong
thunderstorms Wednesday with a slight increase in probability
Thursday. The experimental NSSL Severe Probability model does
already show a 5-15% severe probability for the eastern half of
the CWA. This signal is also evident when looking at the CSU
severe prob model as well. Of course it is far too early to talk
specifics, however, these two days are something to watch as we
move into next week. WMR
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through Sunday morning. Smoke will
begin to build back in from the west this afternoon through
tonight, possibly obscuring mountains and reducing slant range
visibility. A disturbance will bring a chance for showers to
western mountains and foothills by Sunday afternoon, including
KLVM. Chambers
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049/088 058/087 056/087 057/084 057/080 056/072 054/073
    02/T    11/H    01/B    22/W    24/T    55/W    54/W
LVM 049/084 048/083 048/080 047/078 047/075 045/068 045/069
    03/T    21/H    02/T    33/T    45/T    66/T    54/W
HDN 044/088 055/088 052/090 055/088 054/082 053/074 051/074
    00/H    10/H    00/B    21/B    23/T    55/W    54/W
MLS 043/085 055/088 055/088 061/089 059/084 057/077 055/075
    00/U    00/H    10/U    22/W    22/T    44/W    54/W
4BQ 045/084 057/085 056/086 061/087 059/082 057/074 053/072
    00/B    00/H    00/U    21/B    21/B    44/W    54/W
BHK 039/081 051/085 051/084 055/084 056/083 054/077 051/074
    00/U    00/H    00/U    12/W    22/T    33/T    44/W
SHR 044/085 052/084 051/085 052/084 051/081 051/071 046/072
    00/H    21/H    01/B    21/B    23/T    56/W    54/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings

NWS BYZ Office Area Forecast Discussion