Roseau, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

798
FXUS63 KFGF 210750
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
250 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warmer then average through the week with dry weather
  expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...Synopsis...
A very perturbed flow pattern across the northern plains will
eventually give way to an omega block by the end of the week
with the current group of upper lows continuing their eastward
drift with a PNW trough diving south through the northern
rockies early in the week becoming the eastern feature in the
omega block as it dips into the southeast and deepens. During
this time plains riding dominates Wednesday and beyond leading
to increasing temperatures with highs in the 70s and lows in the
50s or about 10 degrees above average.
Southwest CONUS troughing then locks the ridge in place with a
polar jet across the Canadian prairies becoming increasingly
amplified and lifting as far north as the Arctic circle by the
end of next weekend meaning weak flow through the northern
plains with minimal impetus for shortwave activity once the
current activity clears the area today. In the meantime fog
ongoing in northeast North Dakota with clearing skies allowing
for efficient radiational cooling though the coverage is porous
enough that I still cant quite justify a dense dog advisory
despite pockets meeting criteria. Will likely opt for an SPS by
4/5am closer to when people are waking up if things haven`t
filled in yet. Looking east into north central Minnesota our
showers that just wont go away look to actually clear out this
afternoon.. fingers crossed. Not expecting much if any
additional accumulation but maybe a tenth before things
officially end today. Clouds clearing west to east late today
with clear skies for most tomorrow as highs reach the upper 70s
in the west and low to mid 70s in the east for a nice fall day.
As skies are expected to be mostly clear tomorrow with light
winds once again expecting fog potential with the primary focus
east of the Red River Valley. Finally as alluded to above with
ridging dominating this week minimal chances for impactful
weather the next several days with occasional fog likely the
main thing to watch for.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
High impacts to aviation are forecast from very low clouds and
fog forecast mainly between now through 15Z, potentially longer
into Saturday.
Latest guidance suggests very high confidence in widespread IFR
and LIFR ceilings, with probabilities of 70% or greater now
through 15Z over much of eastern ND into MN. After 15Z, chances
begin to slowly decrease, however, it is possible that these
lowest ceilings linger beyond 15Z given the lack of wind and
widespread cloudiness. Additionally, this same guidance suggests
around 40% for dense fog resulting in visibilities quarter mile
or less to develop between 10Z-15Z over locations like KDVL,
KTVF, and KBJI. Widespread fog is also forecast for the night,
although sites like KFAR and KGFK, confidence is not as high in
visibilities quarter mile or less.
Otherwise, widely scattered light rain showers will continue
within Minnesota through the predawn hours tonight. Variable
light winds will stay below 5kt through at least 15Z.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...CJ

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion