049 FXUS64 KOHX 111636 AFDOHXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1136 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1135 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
- Overall dry pattern continues through the forecast period.
- Highs in the 90s starting tomorrow and continuing into next week.
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.SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1135 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
An upper level ridge is building to our west with a short wave trough digging over TN. The forcing overall will be weak with this trough but with some afternoon instability we will see a low chance for some hit and miss showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. The highest chances (up to 20%) will be south of I-40 and west of I-65. Anything that does develop will have to fight dry air at the low levels and overall won`t produce much rain. Highs this afternoon will range from the mid 80s to lower 90s. We clear out overnight with lows falling into the mid 50s to lower 60s. The HREF is giving a 30-50% chances of patchy dense fog for areas mainly south and west of Nashville tonight and that does seem reasonable.
Higher heights will start to build over TN on Friday as the upper level ridge slowly pushes east. This will bring dry conditions with highs once again in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
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.LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 1135 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
We will remain in a quiet and dry weather pattern as we head in to the long term portion of the forecast. The upper level ridge will continue to push east and we will be under the APEX of it over the weekend into next week. This will bring warming temperatures over the weekend with widespread low 90s by Sunday. The warming continues next week with highs pushing into the upper 80s to mid 90s. Monday will likely be the hottest day in the period but the days leading up to Monday and the days after won`t be a ton cooler. Towards the end of next week the upper level ridge will start to flatten and that will bring some slight cooling.
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.AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Light showers will exit the Plateau in the next 1-2 hours. VFR conditions are expected today. There is a low chance (
NWS OHX Office Area Forecast Discussion