Russell, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

581
FXUS63 KICT 200446
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1146 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Chances for showers and storms return tonight into Saturday
  morning, then again Saturday evening/night.
- Seasonable high temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s over
  the next 7 days.
- Multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms through the
  upcoming week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicate modest
northwest flow aloft on the heels of a weak mid/upper trough
situated over the northern Missouri River Valley. A PV anomaly
currently situated over Nebraska is expected to continue swinging
around this upper axis to the southeast throughout the day. This
feature is progged to provide synoptic-scale forcing for showers and
thunderstorms during the late afternoon and early evening hours
today across southern Nebraska and northwest Kansas. As these track
southeastward later this evening, strong 850-mb WAA arising from the
LLJ will promote increasing coverage over central and south central
KS heading into Saturday morning. Short-term models continue to
suggest modest elevated instability (500-1000 J/kg) and decent shear
(30-40 kts), which may allow for the potential for strong to
marginally-severe thunderstorms during this time period. Large
hail and locally heavy rainfall appear to be the primary threats
at this time.
After a brief break from rain Saturday afternoon, another shortwave
is progged to eject out of the Rockies. The latest guidance suggests
this feature alongside returning low-level WAA in central KS will
allow for additional chances for showers and storms beginning
Saturday night and lasting into Sunday. Lack of deep-layer shear
should largely preclude chances for severe storms, though mid-level
lapse rates may support locally-heavy rainfall and perhaps small
hail. High temperatures through the weekend are expected to
only reach the upper 70s and low 80s thanks to cloud coverage
limiting surface insolation.
The wet pattern is expected to continue through the upcoming work
week thanks to little change in upper flow and multiple
perturbations returning to the region. Afternoon high temperatures
in the 70s and low 80s are forecast to continue through Friday, with
overnight low temperatures in the 50s and 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Showers and storms will move slowly eastward across south
central Kansas and could impact KICT overnight. Otherwise some
low clouds in the MVFR category could develop and spread into
in central Kansas Saturday morning. VFR conditions are expected
to prevail for Saturday afternoon and evening.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...CDJ

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion