Sabinal, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

232
FXUS65 KABQ 140602 AAC
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1202 AM MDT Sun Sep 14 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1154 PM MDT Sat Sep 13 2025
- There is 20% chance for (patchy) fog in the central valleys of
  New Mexico tonight through mid-Sunday morning, including parts
  of the Rio Grande Valley from Albuquerque to Socorro as well as
  the northwest highlands.
- There is a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall today,
  especially in central to eastern New Mexico. Flash flooding in
  flood prone areas and recent burn scars will be possible.
- There will be a notable downtick in storm coverage Sunday and
  Monday, followed by an increase going into mid week and another
  uptick going into the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 708 PM MDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Latest trends are indicating lower precipitation chances and a
quicker departure of storms for portions of western/central NM,
with activity remaining persistent through late evening in the
east central/southeast plains. Updated the forecast to reflect
these trends. With clearing across central NM already noted, it
appears the probability for radiational fog has increased within
the central valleys. As a result, introduced patchy fog to these
areas (20% chance) for the overnight/Sunday morning period. Have
also opted to discontinue the Flood Watch for the Ruidoso area.
The remainder of the forecast package remains on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1008 AM MDT Sat Sep 13 2025
The latest water vapor satellite imagery shows the upper low over
southern UT, with a much drier airmass rotating under the upper
level trough circulation across AZ and into western NM. The
atmosphere in advance of these drying westerlies is anomalously
moist, with PWATs ranging from 140-180% of normal across central
and eastern NM per the blended percent of normal TPW satellite
product. Stronger westerlies spreading into NM in the mid/upper
levels of the atmosphere is creating a very favorable shear
environment for severe thunderstorms currently, with 0-6km bulk
shear values of 40-60kts across the area. The SPC upgraded much of
our marginal risk of severe storms to a slight risk today, which
includes most of central and eastern NM. Fast storm motion will
limit the flash flood threat this afternoon/evening, with the main
threat continuing over the Ruidoso area burn scars where a Flash
Flood Watch is in effect until midnight and grounds are already
saturated. The overall setup for today/tonight is a fairly
typical end of Monsoon setup when we still have relatively high
PWATs and the jet stream dips further south and introduces
stronger/drier westerlies to the region. The coincidence of these
two main ingredients is what brings us a convective uptick with
potential severe storms.
After some clearing overnight, the ingredients for low stratus/fog
will be in place. That is, a moist lower boundary layer, wet
surfaces and a much drier mid/upper atmosphere. However, the
timing of the clearing is of lower forecast confidence, making the
low stratus/fog forecast challenging. The upper level low/trough
will eject east out of the central/southern Rockies Sunday, with
progressively drier air filtering in across NM and weak ridging
aloft. Sunday will be warmer, with plenty of sunshine, daytime
temperatures generally near to below average and a void of daytime
heating triggered convection.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1008 AM MDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Southerly winds will transport Gulf moisture back into the
eastern plains Sunday night, setting the stage for a fog/low
stratus event going into Monday morning. The synoptic weather
pattern will slowly shift from Monday night through Thursday as
another upper level trough slowly carves out over the Rockies and
an upper level ridge establishes over the Desert SW and up into
the Great Basin. This pattern shift will allow for moisture to
creep north back into the state and result in an uptrend in daily
rounds of storms Tue/Wed, bringing back at least a minor threat
for burn scar flash flooding. This pattern will also be conducive
for a backdoor front to move into the eastern plains, aided by
convective outflow, but the timing from the latest medium range
model solutions are disparate. A Pacific trough is modeled to move
toward NM Friday and across on Saturday, potentially bringing
some tropical moisture with it and resulting in an uptick in storm
coverage.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1154 PM MDT Sat Sep 13 2025
With storms exiting the forecast area to the east, the main
concern tonight until mid morning Sunday will be patchy low clouds
and fog. Low level moisture remains rich enough for low cloud and
or fog to produce patches of MVFR and IFR conditions east of the
continental divide, and especially across the far eastern plains.
The greatest risk will be along and southeast of a line from KTCC
to KSRR. Otherwise, dry weather is forecast on Sunday. Winds will
probably be a little gusty at times over north central areas,
including KLVS, in the afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1008 AM MDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through at least
the next seven days as a moist Monsoon pattern persists. There
will be a notable downtick in coverage of wetting storms Sun/Mon
as dry westerlies overtake the region, but humidity recovery will
still be good to excellent most areas due to recent rainfall and
moist soils. Expect an uptick in coverage of wetting storms mid
week, especially across the southern high terrain and across
northeast/east-central NM. Chances for wetting storms will trend
up further going into next weekend as tropical moisture wraps
around the upper high circulation and a backdoor front gets into
the mix.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  76  46  78  47 /  60   5   0   0
Dulce...........................  68  38  74  38 /  80  10   0   0
Cuba............................  69  43  73  44 /  70  10   0   0
Gallup..........................  74  37  77  38 /  30   0   0   0
El Morro........................  71  44  74  45 /  50   0   0   0
Grants..........................  77  40  78  41 /  60   5   0   0
Quemado.........................  74  45  76  46 /  40   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  72  50  76  52 /  80  20   0   0
Datil...........................  71  45  75  47 /  70  10   0   0
Reserve.........................  78  44  83  46 /  40   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  80  50  85  50 /  50  10   0   0
Chama...........................  63  39  68  39 /  80  10   0   0
Los Alamos......................  67  50  72  52 /  80  20   0   0
Pecos...........................  69  45  73  45 /  70  30   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  67  43  70  43 /  60  10   0   0
Red River.......................  61  37  61  37 /  60  10   0   0
Angel Fire......................  63  32  66  29 /  70  20   0   0
Taos............................  70  44  74  43 /  60  10   0   0
Mora............................  67  42  70  42 /  70  20   0   0
Espanola........................  73  48  79  47 /  70  20   0   0
Santa Fe........................  71  47  73  48 /  70  20   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  74  46  76  45 /  70  30   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  74  55  78  57 /  80  30   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  76  54  80  55 /  70  30   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  77  53  83  53 /  70  20   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  75  52  81  53 /  70  20   0   0
Belen...........................  78  51  82  52 /  70  30   0   0
Bernalillo......................  76  52  82  52 /  70  30   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  77  49  81  51 /  70  30   0   0
Corrales........................  76  52  83  52 /  70  20   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  77  49  81  50 /  70  20   0   0
Placitas........................  75  52  77  52 /  70  30   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  75  53  81  53 /  70  20   0   0
Socorro.........................  80  55  84  57 /  80  20   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  69  49  73  50 /  80  30   0   0
Tijeras.........................  71  50  74  51 /  70  30   0   0
Edgewood........................  71  47  75  47 /  80  30   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  73  42  77  42 /  80  30   0   0
Clines Corners..................  70  46  73  48 /  80  30   0   0
Mountainair.....................  72  48  75  48 /  80  30   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  70  47  75  48 /  80  40   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  75  54  78  55 /  90  60   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  69  51  73  51 /  90  60   0   0
Capulin.........................  68  45  72  46 /  60  50   0   0
Raton...........................  71  44  75  45 /  60  30   0   0
Springer........................  74  45  78  45 /  60  30   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  71  46  74  46 /  70  30   0   0
Clayton.........................  77  53  80  54 /  60  60   0   0
Roy.............................  75  50  78  50 /  70  50   0   0
Conchas.........................  78  56  83  54 /  80  60   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  77  54  80  51 /  80  60   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  77  55  82  53 /  80  80   0   0
Clovis..........................  77  60  85  59 /  70  80   0   0
Portales........................  85  60  85  58 /  80  90   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  76  58  85  56 /  80  80   0   0
Roswell.........................  83  62  87  60 /  80  70   0   5
Picacho.........................  78  55  83  55 /  90  70   0   0
Elk.............................  77  52  82  52 /  90  60   5   5
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...46
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...44

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion