659 FXUS63 KILX 261911 AFDILXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 211 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A stretch of dry weather will likely continue through next week across central and southeast IL. This will worsen ongoing drought conditions.
- Unseasonably warm weather will develop. Highs will reach the mid 80s Saturday followed by upper 80s to around 90 Sunday into early next week.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 211 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
High pressure will dominate the forecast the next several days, providing dry conditions and a warming trend. A shortwave over Canada and trailing cold front that stalls and dissipates in northern portions of central IL will bring nothing more than high clouds and a brief suppression of a building large scale ridge for late Saturday, before the warming trend resumes for Sunday and Monday. Highs should reach the mid 80s Saturday, followed by upper 80s to around 90 Sunday and Monday. Ordinarily upper 80s would be a few degrees off from record highs in late September, except the historic late September heat wave of 1953 brought anomalously high temperatures on September 28-29, with many 100 degree readings, putting those records out of reach this year. Normal highs are mid 70s this time of year. Despite the unseasonably warm daytime temperatures, nighttime temperatures will be more seasonable, with lows generally in the 50s as clear skies, light winds, and dry conditions allow good radiational cooling. For tonight, another round of patchy shallow fog is possible mainly east of I-57, where the axis of a surface high pressure ridge centers over as it shifts a bit eastward in response to the approaching shortwave, and maintains lighter.
Toward the middle to late portions of next work week, a potential tropical system moving onshore in the vicinity of the Carolinas could help initiate a northeast flow over this region, bringing in cooler air, as well as fairly thick high cloud cover that may strongly dampen the central IL heat wave. Have temperatures trending downward Wednesday through Friday as a result, with highs in the lower 80s, but we could see a stronger cooling than that if this takes place. Precipitation from remnants of this system, or any shortwave ejecting westward from the system looks to be a long shot, and have not included any mentionable chances for rain through next Friday.
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.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Mostly clear skies and light wind are expected through the upcoming 24 hours as a high pressure ridge affects the area.
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.CLIMATE... Issued at 211 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Record high temperatures for Sunday through Tuesday:
Location Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday -------- -------- --------- ---------- ---------- --------- Bloomington 94 (1905) 94 (1953) 100 (1953) 98 (1953) 92 (1897) Champaign 92 (1891) 94 (1953) 99 (1953) 91 (1971) 92 (1897) Charleston 92 (1998) 94 (1953) 99 (1953) 92 (1933) 94 (2019) Decatur 93 (1954) 96 (1953) 100 (1953) 94 (1922) 93 (1897) Lincoln 92 (1954) 96 (1953) 101 (1953) 93 (1952) 91 (2019) Olney 92 (2017) 97 (1939) 101 (1953) 93 (1952) 94 (1952) Peoria 89 (2021) 92 (1939) 98 (1953) 91 (1933) 89 (1937) Springfield 91 (2021) 94 (1953) 100 (1953) 92 (1971) 91 (2019)
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.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
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NWS ILX Office Area Forecast Discussion