Sagerton, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

948
FXUS64 KSJT 221749
AFDSJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1249 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot temperatures today and Tuesday, with highs at or above 100
  degrees anticipated in some of the Big Country and Concho
  Valley.
- Cold front arrival Tuesday night and early Wednesday will bring
  an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms followed by
  cooler temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 137 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Expect hot and dry conditions for the next 24 hours across the
area due to an upper level ridge of high pressure and an intense
low level thermal ridge. Also, mostly sunny skies today will make
even feel hotter. Please use heat safety precautions and stay in
and air condition place or vehicle during the hottest time of the
day. It will also be humid east of an Abilene to San Angelo to
Sonora line with dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s. Highs this
afternoon will be in the 90s across much of the area to 100 to
103 across the Big Country and northwest Concho Valley. Also, can
not rule out a few thunderstorms late tonight north of I-20.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
The main concern is the tail end of the rain and thunderstorm
chances Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. A negatively-
tilted upper level trough over the central Plains should push
southeastward Tuesday night and Wednesday. This will push a cold
front southward through central Texas. South of the boundary,
dewpoints will be around 70 with CAPE values of 1500-3000 J/kg.
Hi- resolution models show storms already ongoing by late Tuesday
evening, mainly across the Big Country. Any of these storms could
produce localized wind gusts or perhaps some hail. Multiple mid-
level impulses will pass along the front overnight which will lead
to additional shower and thunderstorm development late Tuesday
night. The front will continue to push southward Wednesday
morning. Models show a line of showers and thunderstorms moving
southward with the front during this time. Temperatures behind the
front will be much cooler Wednesday afternoon. The current
forecast is for highs in the low 80s but any post-frontal showers
and cloud cover could hold temperatures down in the mid to upper
70s.
Quieter weather looks in store for the rest of the week as surface
high pressure fills in behind the front.  High temperatures will be
in the mid to upper 80s which is right around normal for this time
of year.  By this weekend, the surface high will shift eastward and
allow southerly return flow to set up for Saturday and Sunday and
temperatures could start to creep back into the low 90s. Models are
in general agreement of an upper-level low forming over southern
California on Saturday and drifting through the Desert Southwest
through Sunday. Although west central Texas will be underneath an
upper-level ridge over the weekend, the approaching low to the west
could start to introduce some low chances for showers late Saturday
night through Sunday.  For now, confidence on this is low,
especially because these models tend to do a poor job resolving
these types of features more than five days out.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Winds will
be out of the south-southeast with occasional gusts to around 15
knots this afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     76  99  68  83 /   0  30  70  50
San Angelo  72  98  68  81 /   0  10  60  70
Junction    70  95  70  85 /   0   0  30  80
Brownwood   72  97  68  83 /   0  10  60  70
Sweetwater  75  99  67  81 /   0  30  70  60
Ozona       71  95  69  82 /   0  10  30  70
Brady       71  95  70  80 /   0  10  50  70
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...42

NWS SJT Office Area Forecast Discussion