Saint Marks, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

289
FXUS62 KTAE 060554
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
154 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 131 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
The weak area of low pressure over the central Gulf Coast will
move inland today. Meanwhile, a trough along the Florida East
Coast will help spur some scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms today moving from east to west. Some gusty winds may
be possible in the stronger storms given a bit more DCAPE than
yesterday. With PWATs still near 2 inches, locally heavy downpours
are possible, but without a good source of lift and relatively
fast storm motion, any flood risk will be rather low. Most areas
will only see around a quarter inch of rain, but the high-end
potential is around 1-3 inches in localized spots if any bands of
storms train. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s. Lows will be
in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 131 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Ridging builds over the Gulf Coast Tuesday and Wednesday, which
will help suppress rain chances to about 20% or less for most
areas. This will also allow temperatures to heat up highs rising
to the upper 80s to lower 90s. Given that we will still have a
very humid air mass in place (by October standards), heat index
values will reach 95 to 100 during the peak heating of the day.
Lows will still be rather muggy in the lower 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 131 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Ridging shifts west over the southern Plains late in the week with
a shortwave diving through the Ohio Valley and Appalachians. This
feature helps send a cold front through our area Thursday. There`s
enough moisture in place that could help spark widely scattered
showers. As the front moves off the southeast US coast, an area of
low pressure looks to form along the front and move up the east
coast. This will help drive in some cooler, drier air into the
area with some breezy winds returning. Highs will fall into the
upper 70s to lower 80s and lows tumbling into the 50s and low 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Widespread MVFR/IFR ceilings are ongoing or will develop through the
remainder of the overnight hours and likely persist a few hours
after sunrise at all terminals. The greatest probabilities for IFR
and potentially LIFR conditions will be across DHN/ABY. Whatever
restrictions develop, they should begin to lift around 14 to 16z
with most locations at MVFR or VFR conditions after 18z. Another
round of scattered to widespread SHRA is expected this afternoon
from 18-00z with some sites potentially seeing brief TSRA. Like
yesterday, showers could persist past 00z, especially across our
western terminals in ECP and DHN.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 131 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through this morning for
all but the far eastern nearshore zones as winds decrease. Another
round of Small Craft Advisories appears likely near the end of the
week with a low (10-20%) chance of gale force gusts.
From CWF Synopsis: Strong easterly breezes and rough seas will
subside through the morning with fresh breezes continuing through
tonight. Another round of scattered to numerous showers and storms
is expected today, but rain chances decrease after today. The
tight pressure gradient that has plagued the marine area over the
last several days will continue to relax with more moderate
easterly breezes by Tuesday night and Wednesday. The next cold
front pushes through the marine area Thursday into Friday with yet
another uptick in winds and seas to advisory-level.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 131 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Another round of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms is
expected on Monday with rain chances decreasing Tuesday and
Wednesday. Easterly transport winds of 10-15 mph will continue
today, relaxing into the middle of the week while mixing heights
increase. Thus, good dispersions are generally expected over the
next few days. Fire weather concerns are low for the next few days.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 131 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Similar to yesterday, most areas will only see on average a
quarter of an inch of rain, give or take a tenth or two. But,
given the moist air mass, the high-end potential (a 10% chance of
less of attaining) is 1-3 inches in localized areas. However, the
risk of flash flooding overall is low as these storms should be
relatively quick-moving.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   86  70  89  69 /  50  10  10   0
Panama City   87  71  89  72 /  50  30  10   0
Dothan        86  68  88  69 /  40  10  10   0
Albany        87  68  88  68 /  40  10  10   0
Valdosta      86  70  89  67 /  50  10  20   0
Cross City    87  71  90  69 /  50  20  30   0
Apalachicola  84  73  85  73 /  30  20  10  10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-114-115.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon
     for GMZ751-752-755-770-772-775.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Young

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion