Saltese, Montana Weather Forecast Discussion

682
FXUS65 KMSO 070800
AFDMSO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
200 AM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Decreasing smoke this afternoon and tonight
- Thunderstorms this afternoon/evening featuring gusty outflow
  winds
- Pattern change to cooler and wetter weather early next week
Satellite imagery early this morning indicates a well-formed low
pressure circulation off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. While
it spins off the coast, a ridge of high pressure will move east
of the Northern Rockies today. This scenario will put the Northern
Rockies under southwesterly flow aloft. The low will send Pacific
moisture into the region, fueling the potential for thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening. Expect scattered showers and
thunderstorms to initiate early/mid afternoon and press
northeastward impacting much of the area, mostly concentrated from
Flathead Lake southward. Greater instability and wind shear will
allow for the potential of a few strong storms with gusty outflow
winds and small hail being the main concerns. High resolution
model output is indicating gust potential of 35 to 45 mph this
evening. A direct hit on a burn scar could also lead to a
localized debris flow. Smoke once again may be a limiting factor
to thunderstorm coverage and intensity, although smoke dispersion
models show smoke gradually diminishing in intensity throughout
the day today.
On Monday, the Pacific low will make landfall in the Pacific
Northwest and send a good fetch of Pacific moisture into the
Northern Rockies from the south. This system will initiate a
cooler, wetter pattern starting on Tuesday and lasting into next
weekend. Daytime temperatures return to seasonable levels with
low/mid 70s in western Montana valleys, mid 70s to low 80s for
north-central Idaho valleys. Showers and a few thunderstorms will
be common each day with hints of a closed low sliding south of the
region later in the week. If this closed low does develop, then
widespread precipitation would be the outcome. Still a lot of
details to be ironed out but certainly a cooler and wetter pattern
ahead.
&&
.AVIATION... A weak shortwave trough embedded in southwesterly
flow aloft will keep some chances for showers in the forecast for
early this morning. Smoke will cause reductions in visibility
through early this afternoon south of about I-90, and through this
evening north of I-90. This afternoon, increasing instability will
accompany moisture from the southwest, creating a favorable
environment for thunderstorms. Guidance is indicating chances for
outflow wind gusts of 30 to 40 knots. Thunderstorm coverage will
be throughout the Northern Rockies airspace south of about
Flathead Lake. The wildcard will be lingering smoke if smoke can
persist longer than predicted into this evening, it will inhibit
initiation of convection.
&&
.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&
$$

NWS MSO Office Area Forecast Discussion