866 FXUS64 KBRO 131143 AAB AFDBROArea Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 643 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
...New AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION... Issued at 938 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to be the daily weather occurrence across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley through the forecast period. This pattern will be the result of a flow at the surface generally from the east, a relatively moist atmosphere, daytime heating, the east to west progression of the seabreeze boundary, and 500 mb high pressure that will be nearby but not oppressive.
Temperature-wise, slightly above normal daytime highs and overnight lows will be the rule, with no extreme values likely. A Heat Advisory is not expected to be needed on any day, and heat indices will not likely trigger the need for a Special Weather Statement.
Finally, elevated seas will likely produce an extended period of a Moderate Risk of rip currents at the local beaches.
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.AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 640 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Some showers near the coast may impact HRL and BRO in the next hour or two. Otherwise, there is a moderate chance of showers and thunderstorms later this morning into the afternoon. VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours, except for brief periods of IFR/MVFR conditions in and around any convection.
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.MARINE... Issued at 938 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Elongated surface high pressure over the northern Gulf of America will be the dominant feature along the Lower Texas Coast through the forecast period. Generally moderate winds and seas will occur, with Small Craft Should Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory not anticipated to be needed.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 91 77 92 77 / 50 10 40 30 HARLINGEN 94 73 94 72 / 40 0 30 10 MCALLEN 95 76 97 75 / 50 10 30 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 95 74 97 72 / 40 10 30 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 82 88 81 / 40 10 30 50 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 90 77 91 77 / 40 10 30 30
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.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. &&
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SHORT TERM...66-Tomaselli LONG TERM....66-Tomaselli AVIATION...63-KC
NWS BRO Office Area Forecast Discussion