691 FXUS64 KBRO 170530 AAA AFDBROArea Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1230 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...New AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION... Issued at 1006 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Unsettled weather will continue to be the rule throughout the period, with an active weather pattern in place. This will be due to generally robust precipitable water values interacting with daytime heating, the east-to-west migration of the daytime seabreeze boundary, and a series of disturbances that will "ridge ride" 500 mb high pressure centered more or less over northwest Mexico.
Temperature-wise, the daily threat for showers and thunderstorms, along with the associated cloud cover, will have a dampening effect, with values more near normal for this time of year.
Finally, with continued slightly elevated seas, a Moderate Risk of rip currents is likely for the beaches along the Lower Texas Coast.
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.AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
VFR conditions are expected to generally prevail through the TAF period with scattered convection expected to develop late morning into late afternoon. Brief MVFR to IFR ceilings are possible with any heavier shower or thunderstorm. Expect tall CB by mid afternoon. Confidence is lower in continuing convection this evening.
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.MARINE... Issued at 1006 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Elongated surface high pressure over the entire Gulf of America will continue to be the dominant feature for the Lower Texas Coast for the period. Generally moderate winds and seas are forecast, with Small Craft Should Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory not likely to be needed.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 76 91 77 92 / 40 60 40 60 HARLINGEN 73 91 73 93 / 30 50 20 50 MCALLEN 75 95 76 96 / 20 50 10 50 RIO GRANDE CITY 73 95 73 96 / 20 40 10 40 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 87 81 87 / 50 50 50 60 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 89 77 90 / 40 50 30 50
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.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. &&
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SHORT TERM...66-Tomaselli LONG TERM....66-Tomaselli AVIATION...56-Hallman
NWS BRO Office Area Forecast Discussion