Scott Depot, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

323
FXUS61 KRLX 271753
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
153 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level disturbance brings showers and storms today south/east.
Dry Saturday night through Monday as an upper ridge takes control.
Moisture from a tropical system may approach by midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1005 AM Saturday...
Scattered to numerous showers have developed this morning
across the northeast mountains and nearby lowlands in an area of
enhanced lift amid moisture advection from the south. Mean
steering flow remains light, generally 5-15 kts, resulting in
slow movement of showers, some locally heavy. Given 3-hour FFG
of 1.75-2.5" across the area, the probability of any hydro
issues is rather low, but given the slow movement and some
training of showers, a highly isolated issue cannot entirely be
ruled out. Otherwise, seasonable temperatures are expected
south/east given rain and enhanced cloud cover, while slightly
above normal temperatures across the north/west given dry
conditions amid some sunshine. PoPs have been updated for today,
with the main point of change being lowered PoPs across
southwest VA and southern WV. While an isolated thunderstorm or
two remains possible, it should be few and far between, with
the chance for thunder also being tweaked downward for today.
The rest of the forecast remains on track.
As of 205 AM Saturday...
Ample and persistent upper level trough, with axis along the
southern states, will gradually advance east through Saturday night.
This shortwave will pull moisture across the eastern mountains,
allowing an increased chance for showers and perhaps a few
isolated storms.
Welcomed rainfall accumulations from 0.50 to 0.75 inches are
expected across most of WV, with higher amounts in and near the
mountains. Repetitive showers and storms, or slow moving storms
could result in isolated water issues through tonight. WPC keeps
a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall over the eastern half of
WV, including SW VA through tonight.
Cloud cover and a gentle northerly breeze will keep afternoon
temperatures from the low 80s across the lowlands, ranging into the
upper 50s northeast mountains. High humidity will keep lows in the
upper 50s to lower 60s tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 205 AM Saturday...
By Saturday night, the upper trough moves overhead, providing
forcing along and east of the mountains. This will bring drier
conditions to the end of the weekend and start of the new work week
as the aforementioned upper disturbance shifts east of the
Appalachians losing its influence over the local area. However,
isolated showers or storms can not be ruled out along the mountains
Saturday night into Sunday night.
Drier conditions will continue Monday and Monday night as an upper
ridge from the northwest takes control over the OH valley and
most parts of WV.
High temperatures Sunday/Monday will be slightly above normal with
low to mid 80s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 60s northeast
mountains. Clear skies and near calm flow will allow for strong
radiational cooling and associated dense river valley fog
development Sunday night into Monday morning. Monday night
looks warmer, in the lower 60s due to abundant cloud cover
expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 205 AM Saturday...
We are closely watching a strengthening tropical system that is
expected near the Southeast coast by Tuesday. This system is the key
to our weather forecast for next week, but its exact track is still
very uncertain. There are two potential outcomes. If the system
stays out at sea, a surface high pressure will keep our weather dry.
However, if the system moves inland across the Carolinas, this
will bring a chance of showers and possible heavy rain to our
area, especially later Tuesday and on Wednesday.
Because we`re still a few days out, the forecast calls for a 20 to
40 percent chance of rain Tuesday and Wednesday. If the system gets
closer, probability of precipitation will increase. By Thursday,
conditions should dry out as high pressure takes over. Expect
temperatures to be near or slightly warmer than normal for this
time of year.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 145 PM Saturday...
SCT to numerous showers and ISOLD thunderstorms will affect
southwest VA northeast through the northern mountains and
northeast lowlands. Brief MVFR/IFR CIGs/VSBY is possible within
any heavier showers or storms, but overall, VFR will mainly prevail.
Widespread VFR is expected further northwest under mostly sunny
skies.
Dry weather moves in tonight, leading to the potential for
another night of developing fog/stratus. Expect restrictions to
be a bit more prevalent than last night, with widespread
MVFR/IFR or worse by dawn on Sunday. Fog/stratus will
lift/dissipate by ~14Z on Sunday, with widespread VFR thereafter
amid dry conditions.
Calm or light northwest to northeast flow today, with flow
going calm tonight. Light northeast flow develops on Sunday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR/IFR is possible with
showers/storms today at BKW/CKB/EKN. Timing and intensity of
restrictions later tonight and Sunday morning with fog/stratus
may vary from the forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR is possible at night with low stratus and/or fog through
Tuesday morning.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/GW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...GW

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion