Scranton, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

129
FXUS62 KILM 061044
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
644 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm, humid and mainly dry conditions today ahead of an
approaching cold front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
associated with the cold frontal passage will be on tap for Sun
thru Sun night. Cooler temperatures and breezy NE winds will
return next week along with the potential for unsettled weather
as high pressure wedges across the area and low pressure
offshore from the SE States slowly tracks northeast.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 more bonafide Summer`s Day in the works for Southeast NC and
Northeast SC, with todays max temps in the 90-95 range, except
upper 80s along the coast. The sea breeze will aid in pushing
low level moisture inland today under the guise of lower 70s
dewpoints. Expect a bit more daytime Cu when compared to
previous days and could see an isolated thunderstorm, like Fri,
just not enough coverage to mention a POP at this time other
than here.
As the upper trof amplifies and expands southward and eastward,
a NE-SW oriented sfc cold front will get pushed eastward,
reaching the spine of the Appalachian mountains this morning,
the Central Carolinas during this evening, and trudging across
the ILM CWA to the coast by daybreak Sun. Much of the convection
will occur post frontal Sun with the aid of the days heating.
But pcpn ahead of the cold front not as pronounced, especially
with it occurring outside of the days heating. Post frontal
SCT/BKN low clouds will likely occur after its passage, starting
late tonight, ie. during the late pre-dawn Sun hrs. A muggy
night in store for the FA tonight with widespread 70s for
lows along with widespread 70s sfc dewpoints.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will be moving across the area Sunday associated
with the seemingly relentless cyclonic flow aloft across the
Great Lakes Region. Pops are somewhat consistent with previous
forecast iterations with values just under likely. For Sunday
night into Monday drier air will move in but low clouds/showers
may pester the coast as some isentropic flow develops in these
areas. Highs will be in the middle 80s Sunday dropping to
perhaps optimistic upper 70s Monday. Middle 60s seem to be a
good area for low temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Somewhat unsettled conditions will persist and or develop along
the coast Tuesday and Wednesday as the baroclinic zone just
offshore is enhanced by subtle mid level troughing breaking off
across the southeast. By Thursday another surge of cooler and
more stable air will push in from the northeast as pops become
more relegated offshore. The temperature forecast is one of low
confidence via the moisture and surges. Overall some warmer
numbers remain in place with highs in the lower 80s Tuesday and
Thursday with lower values in the upper 70s other days. Lows
will be in the lower to middle 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Few terminals to advertise MVFR fog thru 13Z. Otherwise,
mainly VFR to dominate there-after thru atleast midnight
tonight. Should see additional diurnal Cu SCT/BKN in coverage
at the 4.5k to 6k foot range from midday thru early this
evening. NW-N land breeze at the coastal terminals this morning
with inland terminals VRB but will identify a common direction.
Coastal terminals will see an active sea breeze by this aftn
and into the evening, mainly SE-SSE 10 to 15 kt. Inland
terminals will see S-SW winds around 5 kt this aftn/evening.
After midnight, the cold front makes its way across SE NC and NE
SC, reaching the coast by 12z Sun. Have indicted winds becoming
northerly after its passage with stratus deck at 1200 feet for
now, possibly lowering below 1k feet by daybreak, especially
across the inland terminals. In addition, will advertise MVFR
fog with the stratus.
Extended Outlook...Thru Sun morning will see MVFR possibly IFR
stratus with fog dissipating by 14Z Sun. Expect scattered
showers/tstorms along and after its passage with periodic
flight restrictions possible. Wedge of high pressure to settle
in later Sun night thru mid- week next week bringing periodic
restrictions from low stratus and the threat for pcpn, mainly
closer to the coast. Active NE winds, could periodically gust to
20+ kt, mainly at the coastal terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Weak land breeze, mainly nearshore, to
dominate this morning. Ahead of an approaching cold front,
winds will become S to SW 5 to 10 kt. Except nearshore this
aftn/evening an active sea breeze will produce SE-SSE winds 10
to 15 kt. Seas will hover around 2 ft thruout this period with
a lazy E to SE 8 second period swell dominating. Waves will
become choppy nearshore this aftn and evening due to an active
sea breeze.
Sunday through Wednesday...NE winds will basically be in place
through the entire week/short and long term forecast period.
Speeds in a range of 20-25 knots even a little higher at times
will warrant a small craft advisory Monday and Tuesday. The
flow relaxes a bit mid week but increases again late in the
period. Significant seas will track winds for the most part with
5-7 feet a good part of Monday and Tuesday decreasing to 3-5
then 2-4 feet in time.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/SHK

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion