Scroggins, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

164
FXUS64 KSHV 201155
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
655 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
- Dry conditions will prevail for the first half of the weekend,
   accompanied by another round of warmer temperatures.
- Showers and storms will return Sunday afternoon to portions of
   the Four State Region.
- The work week ahead looks to be more unsettled, with daily chances
   for showers and storms and more mild temperatures across
   northern zones.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
The ArkLaTex looks on track to actually remain precipitation free
for the course of the next day and a half. Ultimately, the upper
level synoptic pattern is not locking this quiet set up in for the
long term. We`ll find ourselves in the hiatus between systems, if
you will. Tonight, lows will drop into the middle 60s north to upper
60s and lower 70s south, while areas of patchy fog develop again
across the region, particularly north of the I-20 corridor.
Behind Friday`s boundary, drier air will put a short-lived dent in
the humidity, but the late summer afternoon will still rebound
solidly into the low to middle 90s under mostly sunny to partly
cloudy skies. A very similar night will follow, with lows in the 60s
and 70s, but more isolated patchy fog.
As far as the long range forecast models go, agreement remains that
we will see an upper level regime change late in the weekend and
continuing into next week. While ridging builds over the Four
Corners region, troughing looks to amplify over the Great Plains.
The question which remains is exactly how deep the trough will dig
and how far south the steering mechanisms will guide it. The GFS
depicts a transition from pseudo-zonal to northwest flow, along
which a deepening closed low will swing by the middle of the week,
broadening in reach as it slowly drifts along the middle Mississippi
valley by the end of the forecast period. The ECMWF suggests a
similar start to the week, and the development of a similar midweek
trough, but largely keeps this feature to the north of I-40, pushing
zonal flow over the ArkLaTex.
What this means for the ArkLaTex is an unsettled pattern for the
course of the week ahead. Chances for showers and storms look to
return to western zones of the Four State Region by Sunday
afternoon, followed by a wave of rainfall chances overnight into
Monday. Yet another wave looks to move in going into Tuesday,
initiating a continuous stretch of near-areawide rainfall chances
through Thursday. As the pattern remains unsettled, daily
rainfall chances will continue to close out this long term forecast
period, with highs ranging from the 80s north to 90s south, possibly
dropping into the 80s altogether by the middle of the week, with
lows in the 60s and 70s throughout.
/26/
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
For the 20/12Z TAF update, VFR vis/cigs are expected through the
period with some MVFR vis possible at KTXK/KELD/KMLU through 20/15Z
being the only exception. Light southerly surface winds (around 5
kts) will prevail through the period. /16/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  72  94  73 /   0   0  10  10
MLU  95  70  95  70 /   0   0  10  10
DEQ  91  66  90  68 /  10   0  20  20
TXK  95  70  94  71 /   0   0  20  20
ELD  94  67  93  68 /   0   0  10  10
TYR  91  69  90  70 /   0   0  20  10
GGG  93  69  92  70 /   0   0  20  10
LFK  93  69  91  70 /  10   0  40   0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...16

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion