Sentinel, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

110
FXUS63 KBIS 010942
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
442 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High temperatures around 10 to 20 degrees above average today
  and Thursday.
- Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall are possible this
  weekend, especially in south central and eastern North Dakota.
- Cooler temperatures return Saturday with temperatures dipping
  below average to start the upcoming week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 442 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
A ridge is currently centered over the Great Lakes Region
resulting in southwesterly flow aloft over the state. Shortwave
energy riding the western extent of the ridge, and an
associated slow moving surface cold frontal boundary currently
over eastern Montana, will pass through the state today. This
will likely bring isolated to scattered showers to western ND
this morning and possibly linger into the early afternoon.
Forecast models keep instability minimal in the west as the
front passes through. However, should a shower be able to tap
into any lingering elevated instability, a few rumbles of
thunder aren`t out of the question. Further east, a cluster of
showers and thunderstorms has also developed over the James
River Valley early this morning and should exit over the next
couple hours.
The aforementioned frontal boundary will keep high temperatures
a bit cooler (upper 70s), albeit still well above average, in
western ND today. For areas along and east of Highway 83, highs
will mostly be around 80 to a few degrees above 80. In
addition, breezy southerly winds ahead of the frontal boundary
in central and eastern parts of the state will gradually
diminish from west to east as the front passes through.
Thursday is expected to remain dry with highs mostly in the
upper 70s to low 80s, while Thursday night should remain mostly
dry with lows in the 50s to around 60.
For Friday, a trough will begin to dig into the western CONUS,
while another thermal ridge builds into the Northern Plains.
Along with a southwest to northeast orientated quasi-stationary
surface frontal boundary over the state, there may be a large
disparity between highs. Current NBM progs highs ranging from
the mid 70s northwest to around 90 far southeast on Friday.
However, just how far north or south this front sets up may
impactfully alter where these warmer and cooler temperatures set
up. The current forecast for Friday is mostly dry with a low
chance for precipitation in the north and especially northeast.
While severe weather is generally not anticipated at this time,
models do suggest some instability and shear so a strong storm
isn`t out of the question.
Friday night through this weekend and into early next week is
when a major shift in the pattern is anticipated. Split flow
aloft is favored Friday night. However, models are also coming
into agreement that the northern stream will merge with the
southern stream this weekend resulting in a more organized
longwave trough over the western CONUS. As it lifts up through
the Northern Plains, associated surface low pressure (currently
analyzed over the far southwest CONUS), will redevelop over the
Central Plains and likely lift northeast through South Dakota,
Minnesota, and into Ontario. The northeastward progression of
which seems forced by blocking high over the Pacific protruding
back into the eastern CONUS.
While no deterministic models currently wind up the low like a
traditional warm season (rain only) colorado low; thanks to
aforementioned blocking high pressure out east, it`s also not a
completely progressive open wave as some models were suggesting
over the past few days. In other words, the potential for
periods of moderate to heavy rainfall is increasing with NBM
PoPs now as high as 65 percent in parts of southern and eastern
ND Saturday night. In addition, NBM QPF continues to steadily
increase with probabilities of a half inch or more of total
rainfall nearly matching said PoPs. Rain chances are
significantly lower in the northwest.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
A few returns are present over the James River Valley, though
presently ceilings remain high at around 10 kft, with dry air in
place. Therefore, suspect little if any moisture is reaching
the ground at this time. A few showers may enter western ND
Wednesday morning, with the terminal most likely impacted to be
KXWA. Breezy southerly winds should gradually diminish from west
to east through the day Wednesday. Otherwise, LLWS is
occurring/expected across much of central ND tonight before
rapidly diminishing as the sun rises.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Telken

NWS BIS Office Area Forecast Discussion