Shady Cove, Oregon Weather Forecast Discussion

126
FXUS66 KMFR 201740
AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1040 AM PDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion.
&&
.AVIATION...20/18Z TAFs...A mix of IFR/MVFR ceilings continue to
impact some coastal areas, including North Bend late this morning.
These should tend to break up this afternoon. Inland, VFR
prevails today, though isolated showers and thunderstorms may
briefly lower ceilings/visibility to MVFR where they occur this
afternoon/evening.
Tonight into Sunday morning, a cold front will cause a deeper marine
push that will result in some light rain, drizzle and lower ceilings
again at the coast (North Bend) and into the Umpqua Basin
(Roseburg). It may take until after sunrise to reach Roseburg.
Precip fizzles farther south and east, but some lower clouds could
reach to the Cascade Foothills late Sunday morning. Otherwise, it`s
VFR Sunday south and east of there with some breezy W-NW winds
developing in the afternoon, especially east of the Cascades.
-Spilde
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 457 AM PDT Sat Sep 20 2025/
DISCUSSION...With the upper pattern in a similar arrangement to
Friday, little change is expected. Generally warm and dry
conditions are expected, with afternoon and evening thunderstorm
chances remaining in the forecast for northern California counties
and areas east of the Cascades. SPC ensemble modeling indicates
generally isolated coverage, with some slight chances of activity
continuing into tonight. Slight chances also remain for a storm to
slip past terrain and move over Jackson or Josephine County.
Please see the previous discussion for more details on the short-
and long-term forecast. -TAD
AVIATION...20/12Z TAFs...IFR to LIFR ceilings continue along the
Oregon coast this morning under marine stratus. Ceilings look to
lift to MVFR levels later this morning into the afternoon, with
periods of clearing possible. IFR to LIFR levels return later this
evening.
Inland areas look to remain at VFR levels with the TAF period with
only diurnal wind changes noted. -TAD
MARINE...Updated 430 AM PDT Saturday, September 20, 2025...Below
advisory seas continue through today and likely through Sunday. A
passing cold front will bring marine showers and northwesterly
swell, but currently this swell does not look sufficient to build
steep seas.
A thermal trough looks to develop early Monday morning, bringing
gusty northerly winds that may build steep seas south of Cape Blanco
through the day. The thermal trough could expand northward on
Tuesday, building a broader area of steep seas. Winds and seas are
forecast to decrease on Wednesday. -TAD
FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Friday, September 19, 2025...A
broad area of moisture will bring isolated showers and thunderstorms
today and Saturday. While a stray storm could develop west of the
Cascades and over the far east side, the main focus for activity
will be in NorCal (especially western Siskiyou County), and also
perhaps up along the Cascades. Similar areas will be affected
Saturday, except with a slight shift to the south and east. On
Sunday, a cold front will move through with some light rain/drizzle
along the coast and into NW Douglas County, but it will likely be a
dry frontal passage elsewhere. Gusty afternoon west winds are
possible, especially east of the Cascades. Our in-house RAWS
guidance is still showing peak wind gusts in the 25-35 mph range for
some of the typically windier RAWS sites over the East Side. Some
west side valleys too could have breezy winds for a time Sunday
afternoon/evening.
Upper ridging builds Monday and Tuesday, so it will dry out and warm
up. That said, there will be some cool to chilly mornings with steep
inversions (coldest east of the Cascades with temps possibly down
near freezing). There should be a period of ENE winds (not too
strong) on the upper slopes/ridges Sunday night/Monday (with good RH
recovery), then again Monday night/Tuesday with poor to moderate RH
recovery (winds should be a bit lighter).
After that, what had looked like a wetter period potentially setting
up mid-late next week, now looks much less likely. Some guidance was
showing a low coming up into our area with showers/t-storms. But,
now, most solutions take that low farther to our south and east into
the Great Basin, keeping us in a drier, warmer (hotter?) pattern.
This low might graze our SE zones with showers/thunder Wednesday
(but even that is up in the air now). NBM now has 96F for Medford on
Tuesday. And, some guidance now is even hinting that the 90+ warmth
could last through the end of the week. With more/less split flow
aloft mid-late next week, and a slow lowering of heights should at
least bring slightly cooler temps compared to Tuesday`s warmth, but
with much less chance at precip. There are still wide variety of
solutions at this range, so it pretty much goes without saying that
our confidence beyond Tuesday remains quite LOW. -Spilde
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 147 PM PDT Fri Sep 19 2025/
DISCUSSION...Satellite image the circulation of the upper low just
northeast of the Bay area with most of the convective clouds north
of the low center. Meanwhile cloud cover in our forecast area for
the most part has diminished, but we still have varying amounts of
high and mid level clouds, and increasing cumulus build ups east of
the Cascades and Modoc County. Thus far, most of the lightning has
been offshore west of Capetown California. Radar is also lacking of
much activity, but that does mot mean that nothing will happen. Over
the course of the afternoon (mid to late), we`ll see cumulus build
ups in portions of northern Cal Cascades and portions ofthe
eastside, followed by isolated thunderstorms later this afternoon
into this evening. Isolated storms are expected to increase in
numbers later this afternoon and evening before diminishing and
ending later this evening. Most of the action is expected to be in
Western Siskiyou County, and northern Cascades. However, steering
winds will be from the east, and it`s not out of the question that a
few of these storms could come off the terrain and migrate into
portions of Josephine and Jackson county towards this evening.
Isolated storms will end this evening, with most hours and locations
dry overnight tonight. However, some of the high res showing radar
reflectivity shows some showers in the overnight hours in portions
of Siskiyou County and into southern Josephine, Curry County, and
over the marine waters from Gold Beach south. Right now we don`t
expect any storms, but the evening night shift may need to take
another look at this.
Saturday, the models are a but more robust with the QPF fields
Saturday afternoon. However, were expecting more cloud cover which
could put a cap on the amount of thunderstorms. The best chance for
storms Saturday could get shifted a bit east compared to today, with
Cascades east and northern Cal having the best chance of
thunderstorms.
Showers and isolated storms will end Saturday evening with dry
weather Saturday night. A weak upper trough and surface front will
bring light rain mainly from Cape Blanco north along the coast and
northwest Douglas county Sunday morning. The front will dissipate as
it moves onshore, with showers ending towards midday with dry
weather in the afternoon. Expect breezy winds east of the Cascades
and the typical valley winds for the interior westside valleys
Sunday afternoon into early Sunday evening.
In the wake of the upper trough, upper ridging will build in for
Monday and Tuesday bringing dry and much warmer afternoon
temperatures for the interior. However on the flip side with clear
skies expected along with longer nights, this will open up the door
for temperatures to drop off pretty quickly after dark for east of
the Cascades, especially in the valleys with temperatures getting
close to or just below freezing Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Overnight lows Sunday night will be chilly as well, but were not
expecting lows to drop below freezing.
Beyond Tuesday, the operational models and ensembles are in better
agreement with the overall pattern. Dry and warm weather will
continue Wednesday. However the cutoff upper low will inch just
close enough to our area where portions of Modoc County could see an
isolated thunderstorms late in the afternoon and evening, otherwise
it shaping up to be a continuation of dry weather with above normal
temperatures for next week. -Petrucelli
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
CA...None.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.
&&
$$
MAS/MAS/MAS

NWS MFR Office Area Forecast Discussion