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Shady Grove, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

494
FXUS62 KTAE 302011
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 411 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM... (Through Wednesday) Issued at 358 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Northeast flow will continue to prevail through tomorrow. Lower dew points will also be advected into the region from the northeast throughout the afternoon, suppressing any shower activity to nearly nil within our inland areas. Showers and thunderstorms will still be possible offshore. Fairly benign conditions overall.

Expect cloudy conditions with highs generally in the 80s with lows generally in the mid 60s.

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.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 358 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

As a trough continues to sweep across the Atlantic Seaboard, lifting both Humberto and Imelda off into the Atlantic, in its wake we`ll see a CAD setup without the cold air. We`ll have an established surface high to our north advecting northeast flow across the region continuing to supress convection through the end of the work week. A tightening pressure gradient will lead to gusty conditions thru this weekend. By Saturday the high moves offshore and southerly flow aloft becomes established. This could lead to overrunning over the northeasterly flow at the surface, potentially increasing PoP chances, although any meaningful accumulations are not expected.

Expect daytime highs generally in the 80s with overnight lows generally in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 133 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

BKN cigs continue to lift through the MVFR category early this afternoon. Timing the return of VFR will be dependent on how quickly the low-level inversion continues to lift/dissipate, which is uncertain. Based on latest trends/guidance, delayed the return to VFR until the 19-20Z time frame at the terminals, although confidence is medium at best, and MVFR may persist several more hours. After 00Z, higher confidence in a return to VFR as model soundings indicate the dissipation of the low- level inversion and Lifting Condensation Levels (LCLs) rise. Looking ahead to late tonight/Wednesday morning, confidence has increased in maintaining VFR cigs, such as ABY/VLD. For now, trended the forecast in this direction, with SCT020 cigs at ABY and TEMPO for BKN015 at VLD; if the trend continues, subsequent TAFs may be even more optimistic. Winds today NNE around 10 kts with occasional gusts to 20 kts, diminishing to around 5 kts tonight into Wed morning.

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.MARINE... Issued at 358 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Favorable boating conditions will continue during the daytime hours through Wednesday with northeast winds around 10-15 kts and seas ranging from 1-3 feet. Cautionary conditions are possible during the overnight hours due to the nocturnal surges.

A cold front is expected to pass through and stall over the marine waters Wednesday night, creating a tight pressure gradient increasing the winds and seas. Advisory level winds will likely begin Thursday and continue through the weekend with winds around 20- 25 kts and gusts around 30kts. There is about a chance that wind gusts may exceed gale-force criteria (34 kts) during this time period. Seas are expected to increase and range from 5-8 ft Thursday through the weekend.

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.FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 358 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Northeasterly transport winds will continue through the forecast period with gust values peaking around 15-25 mph during the afternoons. Rain chances will be minimal over the next several days. Dispersions for the regions will be moderate with perhaps a few pockets of high dispersions in the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend during the afternoons to go along with the elevated transport winds. This may increase fire weather concerns late in the week into the weekend.

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.HYDROLOGY... Issued at 358 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Very little in the way of rainfall is expected over the next week with about an inch expected near the Gulf Coast decreasing to around a quarter inch across SE AL and SW GA. There are currently no flooding concerns as rivers and streams run below normal.

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.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 67 87 67 85 / 10 0 0 0 Panama City 69 88 69 87 / 10 10 0 10 Dothan 65 85 64 83 / 10 0 0 0 Albany 65 86 64 82 / 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 65 86 66 83 / 10 0 0 0 Cross City 67 89 69 87 / 20 10 0 20 Apalachicola 70 84 71 84 / 10 10 10 20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. &&

$$

NEAR TERM...Oliver SHORT TERM...Oliver LONG TERM....Oliver AVIATION...LF MARINE...Oliver FIRE WEATHER...Oliver HYDROLOGY...Oliver

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion

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