Shady Grove, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

494
FXUS62 KTAE 302011
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
411 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 358 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Northeast flow will continue to prevail through tomorrow. Lower dew
points will also be advected into the region from the northeast
throughout the afternoon, suppressing any shower activity to nearly
nil within our inland areas. Showers and thunderstorms will still be
possible offshore. Fairly benign conditions overall.
Expect cloudy conditions with highs generally in the 80s with lows
generally in the mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 358 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
As a trough continues to sweep across the Atlantic Seaboard, lifting
both Humberto and Imelda off into the Atlantic, in its wake we`ll
see a CAD setup without the cold air. We`ll have an established
surface high to our north advecting northeast flow across the region
continuing to supress convection through the end of the work week.
A tightening pressure gradient will lead to gusty conditions thru
this weekend. By Saturday the high moves offshore and southerly
flow aloft becomes established. This could lead to overrunning
over the northeasterly flow at the surface, potentially increasing
PoP chances, although any meaningful accumulations are not
expected.
Expect daytime highs generally in the 80s with overnight lows
generally in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 133 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
BKN cigs continue to lift through the MVFR category early this
afternoon. Timing the return of VFR will be dependent on how
quickly the low-level inversion continues to lift/dissipate,
which is uncertain. Based on latest trends/guidance, delayed
the return to VFR until the 19-20Z time frame at the terminals,
although confidence is medium at best, and MVFR may persist
several more hours. After 00Z, higher confidence in a return
to VFR as model soundings indicate the dissipation of the low-
level inversion and Lifting Condensation Levels (LCLs) rise.
Looking ahead to late tonight/Wednesday morning, confidence has
increased in maintaining VFR cigs, such as ABY/VLD. For now,
trended the forecast in this direction, with SCT020 cigs at ABY
and TEMPO for BKN015 at VLD; if the trend continues, subsequent
TAFs may be even more optimistic. Winds today NNE around 10 kts
with occasional gusts to 20 kts, diminishing to around 5 kts
tonight into Wed morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 358 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Favorable boating conditions will continue during the daytime hours
through Wednesday with northeast winds around 10-15 kts and seas
ranging from 1-3 feet. Cautionary conditions are possible during the
overnight hours due to the nocturnal surges.
A cold front is expected to pass through and stall over the marine
waters Wednesday night, creating a tight pressure gradient
increasing the winds and seas. Advisory level winds will likely
begin Thursday and continue through the weekend with winds around 20-
25 kts and gusts around 30kts. There is about a chance that wind
gusts may exceed gale-force criteria (34 kts) during this time
period. Seas are expected to increase and range from 5-8 ft Thursday
through the weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 358 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Northeasterly transport winds will continue through the forecast
period with gust values peaking around 15-25 mph during the
afternoons. Rain chances will be minimal over the next several days.
Dispersions for the regions will be moderate with perhaps a few
pockets of high dispersions in the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend
during the afternoons to go along with the elevated transport winds.
This may increase fire weather concerns late in the week into the
weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 358 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Very little in the way of rainfall is expected over the next week
with about an inch expected near the Gulf Coast decreasing to around
a quarter inch across SE AL and SW GA. There are currently no
flooding concerns as rivers and streams run below normal.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   67  87  67  85 /  10   0   0   0
Panama City   69  88  69  87 /  10  10   0  10
Dothan        65  85  64  83 /  10   0   0   0
Albany        65  86  64  82 /  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      65  86  66  83 /  10   0   0   0
Cross City    67  89  69  87 /  20  10   0  20
Apalachicola  70  84  71  84 /  10  10  10  20
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Oliver
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...Oliver

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion