616 FXUS63 KSGF 091827 AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 127 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly northwest of I-44 this afternoon.

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions through at least this weekend. Some record highs may be approached.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025

Still dealing with MCS remnants over our western CWA which has brought some scattered mainly light showers to that area along with keeping temperatures on the cooler side. Water vapor imagery shows a digging low over the west coast and a ridge axis over the high plains and northwest flow across the plains and into our CWA. Shortwave energy in this northwest flow has aided in the ongoing precipitation coverage. The showers/storms were beginning to dissipate somewhat and we are expecting this trend to continue, but may linger with 30% or less coverage through the afternoon. For tonight, we should end the precipitation chances with partly cloudy conditions and temperatures in the mid 50s in the east to the low 60s in the west.

The upper ridge axis will build a bit further east into the plains and Mississippi valley. We should see temperatures back in the upper 80s to low 90s.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025

As the upper ridge builds into the area Thursday through Sunday, generally hot and dry conditions will persist with daily highs in the low to upper 90s and lows in the low to upper 60s. Heat index values should remain below 100 for most areas through the period with no heat headlines expected at this time.

That upper trough will gradually begin to lift northeast into the central and northern plains and upper Mississippi valley early next week with the best rain chances staying north of the area.

Our 8 to 14 day outlook continues the trend of above normal temperatures and near to below normal precipitation. Ensembles in overall agreement with a general 5 to 8 degree above normal temperature during this period which goes through the 22nd of September. Normal highs for this time of year range from 77 to 82 across the CWA and lows from 55 to 59.

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1204 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025

For the 18z TAFS, remnants of a thunderstorm complex were pushing into west central MO, southwest MO and extreme southeast KS early this afternoon. Coverage is likely to diminish the further east it moves into the area given lack of instability and drier air. Have gone with VCSH at SGF and prob30 at JLN for coverage purposes with the showers, but ceilings should remain high enough for overall VFR conditions. We have convection ending by 00z. A light southerly wind generally less than 10 kts is expected through the period.

.CLIMATE... Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025

Values listed below are for sites that are within 5 degrees of a record.

Record High Temperatures:

September 10: KSGF: 96/1984

September 11: KSGF: 96/2000 KUNO: 96/1953

September 12: KSGF: 97/1939 KJLN: 97/1956 KUNO: 96/1980

September 13: KSGF: 99/2011 KVIH: 96/1956 KUNO: 96/1980

September 14: KUNO: 99/1954

September 15: KSGF: 98/1893 KJLN: 98/1956 KVIH: 97/1897 KUNO: 98/1954

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None.

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Lindenberg CLIMATE...Lindenberg/Burchfield

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion