Shenango, Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

536
FXUS61 KPBZ 110029
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
829 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions with gradually warming temperature can be expected
through the week. There is a slight chance that precipitation
returns by the end of the upcoming weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry and seasonably cool overnight with some river valley fog
---------------------------------------------------------------
Surface high pressure remains across the Northeast maintaining
dry conditions. Tonight, light to calm wind and limited cloud
cover will provide optimal conditions for radiational cooling.
This will once again allow for patchy radiation fog development
in the river valleys. Overnight lows will cool 5-8 degrees below
normal into the upper 40s and lower 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather with a gradual warming trend
--------------------------------------------------------------
Dry conditions are confidently forecast into Saturday as broad
surface high pressure remains in control across the area. Upper
troughing will slowly approach from the west today, gradually
crossing the Ohio Valley Thursday and Friday. However, the only
sensible result from this will be a limited increase in moisture
and increasing warm advection ahead of the trough axis.
Temperatures will climb to slightly above average by Friday.
Limited cloud cover should lead to efficient radiational
cooling each night with potential for patchy river valley fog
each morning. Lows will run in the lower 50s across most of the
region.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Low chances for rain late Saturday and Sunday
- Warming temperatures and dry conditions continue
------------------------------------------------------------------
An upper shortwave trough will dig southwards from Quebec across
New England late Saturday through early Monday as a weak cold
front drops south across the region. Latest ensemble cycles have
trended farther east with this feature, which is likely to keep
most if not all rain east of our area. NBM probabilities are
less than 30% overnight into Sunday, with greatest chances north
of Pittsburgh. Regardless of outcome, any rain we do see is
unlikely to make much difference in our dry conditions.
Probabilities of 0.25" remain less than 15%.
High pressure under upper ridging is likely to build back over
the region early next week, returning us to a dry pattern.
Though afternoon highs may run a few degrees cooler than other
days on Sunday behind the "cold" front, temperatures will stay
slightly above average at least through mid-week. This puts most
of the area in the upper 70s/lower 80s with very comfortable
conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure will maintain dry weather and light wind
through the TAF period. A few cirrus will stream overhead
overnight. Another seasonably cool night with light wind and
clear skies points toward more river valley fog development.
Some guidance suggests restrictions spilling over into FKL, but
learning on persistence from Tuesday night in which no
restrictions were observed in very similar conditions, opted to
hold off on mention of fog, but won`t entirely rule out brief
dips in vis after 09z.
High confidence VFR continues Thursday with subsidence under
high pressure. A similar moisture profile to Wednesday will
likely support a few afternoon cu with 6-8kft bases. Light
northerly flow around 5 knots expected.
.OUTLOOK....
VFR is expected through Sunday under surface high pressure. Mid
level clouds will likely increase Thursday and Saturday as upper
level troughs cross the region, though surface high pressure
will maintain dry weather.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Rackley
NEAR TERM...Rackley/MLB
SHORT TERM...Rackley
LONG TERM...Rackley/88
AVIATION...MLB

NWS PBZ Office Area Forecast Discussion