Sherwood, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

380
FXUS63 KIWX 161638
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1238 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and very warm through Friday with highs in the mid to
  upper 80s.
- Showers are possible (20% to 40%) Saturday through Monday. An
  isolated thunderstorm is also possible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
At the onset of the forecast, ground conditions were becoming
very dry over northern Indiana. Drought feedback was already
apparent and was contributing to very large (and spectacular)
diurnal temperature swings near 40 degrees (nearly 15 degrees
above normal). This pattern will continue through Thursday.
A very large positive height anomaly remained over the Upper
Great Lakes region to the southern portion of Hudson Bay near
James Bay. 500 mb anomalies of around +400 meters were over this
area and were supported by upstream teleconnections over
western North America and the eastern Pacific. This upper level
ridge will break down early this weekend as an abundance of
energy undercuts the ridge. As a result, showers and perhaps an
isolated thunderstorm are possible starting Saturday.
The latest array and WPC forecast keep overall precipitation
relatively light through Monday and insufficient to improve
drought conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
High pressure should allow VFR conditions to dominate both sites
through the period. As mentioned in the 12Z TAF discussion, a
few models hint as some shallow fog in the typical 9 to 12Z time
frame (inversion it at its strongest), mainly at KFWA. While an
argument could be made to introduce a brief tempo group, not
enough confidence to cause flight impacts quite yet, so will
defer to the 00Z or possibly 06Z TAF issuance for possible
addition.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Fisher

NWS IWX Office Area Forecast Discussion