Shields Cemetery, Indiana Weather Forecast Discussion

707
FXUS63 KIWX 250957
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
557 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There are low chances for rain showers today, especially near
  Lake Michigan and north of US 30. There will be patchy fog
  this morning.
- Dangerous swimming conditions are expected on Lake Michigan
  through this afternoon. See the latest beach hazards statement
  for details.
- High temperatures will range from 70 to around 80 degrees
  through next week, with lows in the 50s and 60s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Rain showers are possible today (20-30 percent chances),
particularly near Lake Michigan and north of US 30 through the
afternoon. An upper level low over Lower Michigan will bring another
trough through this morning into the early afternoon. North-
northwest flow off Lake Michigan will persist, so we get a minor
lake contribution of moisture/instability (though not too much
cooler behind the front). Most of the high res guidance has isolated
to scattered showers along the lakeshore starting later this
morning, then shifting eastward and confining to areas further north
through the day. By around 21z, high pressure ridge to the west and
north begins to encroach on our western CWA, with subsidence
quashing any lingering precipitation. Cloud cover will also be on
the decrease today, particularly late this afternoon into the
overnight as the ridge builds in.
Once the trough exits, we start another dry period with the upper
level ridge in place through next weekend. High temperatures will be
in the 70s and low 80s. Lows will be in the 50s and low 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 555 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Few changes needed for the 12Z TAFs, most notably I have taken
fog out at KSBN and amended the TEMPO group at KFWA for
visibilities to drop down to only 4 miles now. Fog has still
been around this morning, but it has been more shallow than
originally anticipated. The highest concentrations of patchy
dense fog are focused in northwest Ohio. MVFR visibilities are
possible at KFWA through 13Z if fog is able to develop further
west. Otherwise, expect IFR ceilings through the morning with
the stratus deck overhead. Fog will dissipate 1-2 hours after
sunrise. During the day, there are chances for scattered lake
effect rain showers near Lake Michigan. Showers will likely be
in the vicinity of KSBN during the morning and early afternoon
hours. Otherwise, northwest flow ensues later this afternoon
and evening with VFR ceilings by the evening hours.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 342 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Continued north-northwest winds at 10 to 20 knots will persist
through the day near the Lake MI shoreline. Wave direction will
linger between 340-360, which is a favorable angle of approach for
strong southward flowing longshore currents, strong structural
currents (esp. on the north sides of piers/breakwalls), and rip
currents within the sandbars (especially further south). Wave
heights look to remain around 3 to 5 feet today, with periods of 5
to 6 seconds. Waves subside this afternoon to around 2 to 3 feet,
and remain less than 2 feet through the remainder of the week with
weak flow ahead. Extended what will be the final beach hazards
statement of the swim season through this afternoon based on the
aforementioned high swim risk conditions. Moderate swim risk
conditions are expected late this afternoon through the evening. The
final Surf Zone Forecast for the 2025 season will be sent September
30th, 2025. Forecasts and beach hazards statements will resume
Wednesday May 20th, 2026 (prior to Memorial Day Weekend).
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for
     INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LMZ043-
     046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...Johnson
MARINE...MCD/Johnson

NWS IWX Office Area Forecast Discussion