Shields, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

438
FXUS63 KLBF 112106
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
406 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated storms this evening and tonight, could see a strong
  to severe storm
- Isolated storms may be possible Friday late afternoon and
  evening
- Temperatures briefly cool on Sunday, rebounding back into the
  80s early next week
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 405 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
The main concern in the short term will be the chance
for isolated thunderstorms this evening and tonight. Generally
expect thunderstorms to occur after 5pm CT. A trof west near
the WY/NE border into northeast Colorado will be the main axis
for thunderstorm development. There is currently ongoing
convection along the Rockies and expect additional development
across northeast CO and easter WY that may move into the western
portion of the CWA. Low confidence in thunderstorms sustaining
themselves across southwest NE as there a decent cap is in
place, which should limit thunderstorm activity. The better
potential for a strong or severe thunderstorm will be across
western and the northwest Sandhills, generally west of HWY 61
and north of Interstate 80, where the instability is favorable
along with better CAPE and shear. Should a storm move into this
area it should sustain itself and could potentially become a
strong to severe thunderstorms with hail and gusty winds the
main hazard. Forecaster confidence is low in seeing more than 1
or two storms this evening across western Nebraska.
The focus will then turn to late evening/overnight when an
additional potential for thunderstorms may be possible. A LLJ will
kick in this evening across the Sandhills, with the potential for
thunderstorm development across the Sandhills into north central
Nebraska tonight into the overnight. CAPE decreases tonight
however, thus expect these to be more general thunderstorms,
however a strong storm cant` be ruled out.
For Friday: The trof will move slightly eastward, but still remain
mostly west of the CWA and again be the focus for thunderstorm
development along the higher terrain. The environment looks to be
fairly conditional for thunderstorms and expect the coverage to
again remain isolated across western Nebraska. Could see convection
as early as late afternoon into the evening on Friday, with the area
of greatest concern generally west of HWY 83. CAPE and shear will be
marginal and at this time don`t expect severe storms, but can`t rule
out a strong storm.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 405 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
The sfc trof will move eastward into western
Nebraska/Sandhills with convection possible along the axis of
the trof in the afternoon and evening. Will need to monitor this
in upcoming forecast as storms my be more scattered and
organized. Temperatures will briefly cool on Sunday as it will
generally be overcast and rainy keeping high temperatures only
in the 70s. This will only be brief as temperatures will warm
back into the 80s by Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
VFR conditions will prevail for most of the 24 hour period.
There is the potential for some fog to develop in the river
valley Friday morning, however, at this time confidence is low.
Winds will be breezy this afternoon across portions of the
northern Sandhills, including KVTN terminal, with wind gust of
25 to 30 kts out of the south. The rest of the forecast area
winds will be out of the south to southeast around 5 to 10 kts
through this evening. Then winds will shift across western and
north central Nebraska to the west southwest around 5 to 10 kts
overnight.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Gomez

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion