Shiloh, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

067
FXUS62 KFFC 161056
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
656 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 210 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Key Messages
- Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected in north
   Georgia today.
- Widespread wetting rainfall remains unlikely for all areas
   except the mountains of northeast Georgia through Wednesday.
For Today:
An coastal low will continue to enjoy its life along the coast of
the Carolinas today. Over the last 24 hours a weak shortwave
rotating around the parent low has become increasingly apparent in
the CAM guidance. As this wave slides southward through the southern
Appalachians this afternoon it will enhance lift and combine with
diurnal heating to support isolated thunderstorm development.
Guidance from the HREF favors isolated activity over the mountains
of northeast Georgia by 1 PM, with limited activity expanding to
other parts of north Georgia between 1 PM and 9 PM. Afternoon
surface dewpoints near 60 will limit the amount of instability for
storms to work with this afternoon (MUCAPE 250-750 J/kg). Meanwhile
poor mid level lapse rates (5.5 C/km or less) and warm air above 500
mb will produce narrow CAPE profiles and limit updraft strength.
Toss in 0-6 km shear in the 10 to 20 kt range and the odds of severe
weather are very low. There may however be a couple of storms that
produce wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph due to a dry boundary layer and a
weakly inverted V sounding profiles.
Though the forecast trend has been towards greater rain chances
today, significant rainfall remains unlikely in north Georgia. Our
forecast rain chances peak near 35% in the mountains and are 20% or
less for Atlanta and other areas along and north of Interstate 20.
Thus most locations won`t see any rainfall today, and where rainfall
does occur a best case scenario is probably half and inch of rain.
Cloud cover should help keep most of north Georgia in the mid to low
80s this afternoon, while central Georgia will see highs in the
upper 80s.
Tonight:
A couple of additional weak shortwaves could rotate through north
Georgia tonight. These features will lack the aid of diurnal
heating, but they could still prove sufficient to produce some light
rainfall. The zone most likely to see light rain should extend from
the northwest GA/AL border down into the Atlanta Metro. Rain chances
should peak between 2 AM and 8 AM. Lightning is unlikely (< 10%
chance) due to a lack of instability overnight.
On Wednesday:
A couple of isolated showers or thunderstorms will be possible
during the day on Wednesday, though a lack of a clear mechanism for
lift during the afternoon decreases forecaster confidence in overall
coverage. Thus the odds of rainfall for any given location in north
and central Georgia remain at 15% or less in our forecast. These
odds may rise if any additional weak shortwaves become apparent. For
most areas Wednesday should seem like another rinse and repeat day.
High temperatures will be in the 80s and the afternoon will be
punctuated by scattered cumulus.
Albright
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 210 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Key Messages:
- The dry pattern continues through the end of the week, with
   only slight rain chances returning this weekend.
- High temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s before cooling
   down to the mid 80s by the end of the weekend.
Dry and warm conditions will persist through the end of the week
as the cut off low over the Carolina coast lifts north and a mid-
level ridge builds over the region in its wake. Between
subsidence from the ridge and decreasing PWAT values, rain
chances over Georgia will be minimal Thursday and Friday, further
contributing to the potential for a rapid onset drought in the
region in the coming days/weeks. Temperatures will tick up a bit
during this time, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Over the weekend, the ridge will be kicked east as broad mid-
level troughing pushes across the Great Plains into the Midwest.
A few weak shortwaves wrapping around the trough will push
through the Southeast U.S., bringing along increased (but still
not impressive) moisture, and potentially supporting slight rain
chances (10-20% PoPs) in the area each day into early next week.
Additionally, this setup will bring a slightly cooler airmass
into the region, with high temps in the upper 80s to low 90s on
Saturday falling to the low to mid 80s for Sunday and Monday.
Culver
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 654 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected in north Georgia
through 15Z Wednesday. Coverage should be sparse and the odds of
impacts at any of the Atlanta area TAF sites are 20% or less.
Winds will continue to be light (2 to 8 kt) from the north, though
northwest winds will be more prevalent across north Georgia
between 16Z and 23Z today.
//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Moderate confidence in the precipitation forecast at ATL between
20Z today and 01Z Wednesday.
High confidence in all other elements of the forecast.
Albright
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          83  61  84  62 /  20  10  10   0
Atlanta         86  66  87  66 /  20  20  20   0
Blairsville     76  58  78  57 /  30  10  10   0
Cartersville    87  63  88  64 /  20  20  20   0
Columbus        91  66  90  67 /  20  10  10   0
Gainesville     83  62  84  63 /  20  10  10   0
Macon           87  63  88  65 /  10  10  10   0
Rome            88  64  88  63 /  20  10  10   0
Peachtree City  86  63  87  64 /  20  10  20   0
Vidalia         88  63  89  65 /   0   0  10   0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....Culver
AVIATION...Albright

NWS FFC Office Area Forecast Discussion