Silver Lane, Connecticut Weather Forecast Discussion

899
FXUS61 KBOX 221147
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
747 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather continues until the chance for some unsettled
weather returns late Tuesday into Wednesday. Temperatures
should also average about normal this week, with the exception
of above normal temperatures Tuesday. Potential for a more
widespread rainfall event Thursday and Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages:
* Warmer today after a cooler weekend
Dry weather continues today, though with high pressure now over the
North Atlantic, southerly flow will aid in increasing temperatures
and humidity. Winds may be more SE along the immediate coasts due to
local seabreezes. Highs today will be in the 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Milder tonight with continued warmer air aloft
* Showers and thunderstorms move in Tuesday evening
Cloud cover increases tonight and winds shift more SW with high
pressure well offshore and a front approaching from the west. Lows
overnight will be milder in the mid to upper 50s, with some spots
along the immediate coast reaching 60F.
With continued SW flow, temperatures and moisture increase for
Tuesday. Dew points are expected to climb into the 60s and high
temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70s, with the exception
of the CT River Valley and much of eastern MA where low 80s are
possible. This heat and moisture combined with the forcing from the
approaching front will provide a favorable environment for showers
and thunderstorms to develop in. Guidance indicates decent SBCAPE
values for Tuesday afternoon/evening around 500 J/kg which would
favor some rumbles of thunder, and modest 0-6 km shear may support
an isolated severe storm or two. However, probabilities for severe
weather are still low at this time. Locally heavy downpours are
possible with sufficient forcing and PWAT values around 1.75".
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Rain continues Tuesday night into Wednesday
* The pattern remains unsettled through the rest of the week
With waves of low pressure moving along the front, coverage of light
to moderate rainfall may increase Tuesday night going into
Wednesday. Cloud cover remains through Wednesday as winds shift more
NE and rain chances continue through the day.
A longwave trough over the Great Lakes will continue to dig deeper
into the Midwest and central CONUS midweek. Guidance still varies a
bit on exact location, but surface low pressure moving over southern
Ontario from the Midwest will be the main source of another chance
at more rain for the end of the weak as its warm front moves across
southern New England going into Friday. Deterministic models have
rain chances increasing Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, but
timing will likely change a bit as we get approach midweek.
Depending on how this front tracks and another frontal boundary
moving in after it, we could see more convection develop to end the
week. Lift from this setup may also lead to some downpours as
ensemble mean PWAT values are around 1.5" by Friday afternoon. The
longwave trough may start to shift east Saturday into Sunday, though
depending on how quickly it moves off into Atlantic Canada, we may
continue to see the chance for some showers through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
12Z Update:
Today...High Confidence.
VFR. Light/calm northerly winds early this morning become light
S winds today with sea breezes on the immediate coast 5-10kts.
Tonight...High Confidence.
Light SW winds expected tonight with MVFR/IFR cigs possible by
early Tuesday morning in areas.
Tuesday...Moderate Confidence in ceilings/categories.
Mix of MVFR-pockets of IFR early AM. VFR/MVFR as the day goes
on and chances for TSRA/SHRA increase in the evening. SW winds
to 10 kts across the region with locally higher winds over the
Cape and Islands. Gusts up to 20 kts possible for Cape/Islands
and south coast.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Light NNW wind less than 8 kts this morning. Sea breeze kicks in
13-15z with winds ESE/E 8-10 kts. Sea breeze kicks out 23-00z
with winds turning S.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA, slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. SHRA
likely, slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday through Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR
possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday through Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR
possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA, slight chance TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Tuesday...High Confidence.
High pressure south of the Maritimes leads to relatively light
winds and seas across the waters until Tuesday morning. Good
visibility. Seas to 5 ft are expected over the waters Tuesday.
Small Craft Advisories have been issued for much of Tuesday into
Wednesday as a precaution.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance
of rain showers.
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance
of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.
Wednesday through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers, slight
chance of thunderstorms.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ250.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 8 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon Tuesday to 4 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Hrencecin/FT
NEAR TERM...Hrencecin
SHORT TERM...Hrencecin
LONG TERM...Hrencecin
AVIATION...Hrencecin/Mensch
MARINE...Hrencecin

NWS BOX Office Area Forecast Discussion