Simpson, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

131
FXUS63 KGID 240015
AFDGID
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
715 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...Aviation Update...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers (and an isolated non-severe thunderstorm or two) will
  gradually end from north to south this evening through
  Wednesday morning.
- A few sprinkles will be possible east of Highway 281 Wednesday
  afternoon, but the remainder of the forecast remains dry
  (through Sept. 30).
- After a seasonable afternoon Wednesday, modestly above normal
  temperatures (with Highs generally near 80) are expected each
  afternoon Thursday-Tuesday. Normal high temperatures for late
  September are in the lower to mid 70s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
A cloudy and dreary day has been observed across much of the
forecast area today as a weak frontal boundary persists just
south of the local forecast area. Temperatures have ranged from
the upper 60s to lower 70s, about 5-7 degrees below seasonal
norms. So far, most locations have received fairly modest
precipitation amounts during the daytime hours, ranging from a
trace to around a quarter of an inch of precipitation, with more
clouds than periods of rain.
For the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours, expect a
possible uptick in precipitation as the upper level disturbance
across the Central Rockies transitions into Kansas. In fact, it
looks like there is already an uptick in activity late this
afternoon across western portions of the area, as supported in
mesoscale model data. Overall, while there is not much
instability to work with, there could still be enough forcing
for a weak thunderstorm or two this evening, and for this reason
did not pull the mention of thunder despite being mainly
thunder free so far this afternoon.
As the upper level wave then pushes east on Wednesday, skies
should clear across the local area - which combine with
northeasterly flow wrapping around the departing disturbance,
could result in a few afternoon sprinkles mainly for areas east
of 281. This will be a low impact event, and most will just
enjoy return of partly/mostly sunny skies and seasonal
temperatures Wednesday afternoon.
Thereafter...a weak upper level ridge will build back across the
area for the majority of the extended period as models keep a
cutoff area of low pressure across southern California. This
should result in seasonably warm temperatures (mainly low 80s)
along with dry weather through the upcoming weekend. The
aforementioned low will eventually make its way into the
Southwest and Southern Plains early next week, but little
change to the weather pattern is anticipated locally as
ensembles have a fairly high confidence dry signal through at
least next Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 713 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview (including winds):
Although a lower-VFR ceiling is possible at times (especially
Wednesday afternoon), confidence is high in VFR
ceiling/visibility throughout the period, along with dry/rain-
free weather (except for mainly perhaps a few lingering
sprinkles right away these first few hours). Winds will not be a
significant concern, with sustained speeds averaging at-or-below
10KT throughout (any slightly higher gusts up to around 14KT
most favored Wednesday afternoon), and direction rather
consistently northerly.
- Ceiling trends:
Now that even scattered sub-VFR clouds from earlier this
afternoon have vacated at least slightly south of both
KGRI/KEAR, confidence is high in VFR going forward (despite
plentiful lingering mid-high clouds overnight). By late
Wednesday morning and especially afternoon, there are increasing
signs that a scattered-to-broken stratocumulus deck will
develop with daytime heating. Even so, confidence is high that
any potential ceiling should be no lower than low-end VFR (4-5K
ft. AGL). There is a non-zero chance that a rogue sprinkle/brief
shower could develop in tandem with these clouds, but chances
of shower activity are currently deemed too low for any TAF
consideration.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion