Sonoita, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

664
FXUS65 KTWC 010905
AFDTWC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
205 AM MST Wed Oct 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will prevail this week. Afternoon high
temperatures will warm to levels about 5 degrees above normal by
Thursday and Friday before cooling back down closer to near normal
levels this weekend. Breezy southwest winds are expected this
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Beautiful day on tap across southeast Arizona under
building high pressure aloft. Highs today will run a couple degrees
warmer than yesterday. Additional warming next two days which
will likely be the warmest of this 7-day forecast package. A few
locals across the lower deserts are forecast to have highs up to
101 degrees tomorrow and Friday.
This weekend: An upper level trof moving across the western CONUS
will bring slightly cooler temperatures along with gusty SW winds
on Saturday.
Early next week: Slightly warmer as upper heights/low-level
thickness values increase a bit as upper high builds over Texas.
Moisture backing into the eastern zones from New Mexico Tuesday
may bring a slight chance (10% chance) of showers.
After that lots of uncertainty with respects to the potential of
tropical moisture advecting into the area. Current 6-10 day (Oct
6-10) and 8-10 day (Oct 8-14) precipitation outlooks are leaning
above normal (40-60%) across the area. Stay tuned.
On a side note: out in the Pacific this morning, approximately
900 mile SW of the southern tip of Baja is Tropical storm Octave.
The name Octave has historical meaning for southern Arizona as on
this date in 1983, widespread heavy rain, amounts up to 4", and
significant flooding occurred associated as deep tropical moisture
from then Tropical storm Octave moved into the state. The Tucson
airport recorded 2.96" OTD in 1983 which is the wettest October
day on record.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 02/12Z.
Mostly SKC thru the valid period with FEW 8k-10k ft AGL east of
Tucson this afternoon. SFC winds variable and terrain driven less
than 10 kts thru 01/17Z and then again aft 02/04Z. SFC winds
SWLY/WLY 6-12 kts during other times of the valid period. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions prevail this week across southeast
Arizona. Winds generally south to southwest through this week
with speeds up to 15 mph and gusts up to 20-25 mph. Minimum RHs
between 15-25 percent through the week as a drier airmass becomes
more established across Southeast Arizona. Temperatures warming to
above normal levels by the second half of the week. Breezy
southwest winds will be present starting Friday through next
Monday, with the strongest wind gusts 30-35 mph expected Saturday.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
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NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion