Spade, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

211
FXUS64 KLUB 141128
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
628 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 617 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
- Showers and thunderstorms will continue through this morning,
   becoming more scattered this afternoon and evening.
- Generally warm and dry for the rest of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
A line of NE-SW oriented storms are moving ENE across the area.
While not severe, they may still produce heavy rain and localized
flooding, particularly where training occurs. These should be
through the entire area by sunrise, with slight weakening possible
off the Caprock during the early morning hours. The associated upper
trough will lift over the Great Plains today and a secondary
shortwave will track across eastern portions of the area this late
this afternoon into this evening. PWATs remain near 1.5 inches with
dewpoints in the mid 60s. Despite the lack of notable forcing, the
muggy conditions combined with the instability from at least partial
daytime clearing should be enough to lead to the development of at
least scattered thunderstorm activity over the southern South Plains
and off the Caprock. Again, severe weather is unlikely, however some
storms may produce heavy rain and/or localized flooding.
Thunderstorm activity should taper off by later in the evening as
the trough departs to the east.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
A ~590 Dm mid level high pressure will develop over the area and
remain generally centered in place Monday and Tuesday bringing warm
and dry conditions. Southerly winds and mostly sunny skies will drive
temperatures into the mid 80s on the Caprock, and near 90 off the
Caprock. Some subtle shortwaves may lead to very isolated
afternoon/evening storms, but these will not be significant. An upper
low will become cutoff from the main flow over the Canadian Prairies
and descend southward over the Dakotas on Wednesday. A weak
shortwave out ahead of it will move over the Panhandle during the
daytime hours but should stay far enough north that conditions
should be similar to that of the previous two days. Flow will again
split, with a more broad trough developing over the Great Plains.
Its more potent axis will move over our area late Wednesday into
Thursday morning and all long range models indicate at least some
showers and thunderstorms resulting from this. Highest chances would
again be expected to the north at this time, but with the
complicated evolution of the aforementioned synoptic flow pattern,
things could easily change between now and then. A ridge will
displace the trough to the east and warm and dry conditions look to
return towards the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms will continue to linger
around the region this morning which may briefly affect any TAF
site. Low CIGS were just off to the west of the KLBB and KPVW
terminals this morning and are expected to expand eastward over
the next few hours. Additional scattered thunderstorms are
anticipated this afternoon with highest chances at KCDS. Low CIGS
and especially low visbys may return early Monday morning towards
the tail end of this TAF period.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...01

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion