Springtown, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

207
FXUS64 KTSA 280522
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1222 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1213 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
- Dry weather with above normal temperatures for the next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
The latest HREF has only spotty low probs for fog Sunday morning.
Will insert spotty patchy fog mention using dewpoint depression
tool. Morning lows have been on the cool side at the valley sites,
so some blend of CONSMOS was used. Expect partly to mostly sunny
skies during the day on Sunday with a slight increase in high cloud
from the west. Low level thermal fields cool slightly, so expect
highs a degree or two below highs yesterday.
Lacy
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
It is not uncommon to have extended periods of quiet weather in the
fall, and we are in one now. Ridging both aloft and at the surface
will prevail well into next week. The most notable change over the
coming days will be an increase in high cloud as the upper trough
over the Southwest shifts east. At least partly because of this,
high temps will trend downward through Tuesday. This upper trough
will lift out well north of the region next week and is not expected
to have an impact. A piece of energy wrapping around the western
side of upper troughing over the Southeast is expected to stay to
our southeast for the middle to latter part of next week. High temps
will trend back upward to close out the week, and will remain above
average for this time of year.
A pattern change is expected next weekend into the following week.
The more likely scenarios in the ensemble data suggest a deeper
western CONUS trough gets established and shifts east. The 12Z EC
and GFS both bring a more fall-like cold front into the area at some
point in week 2 that will bring some weather perhaps. Time will tell.
Lacy
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Brief reduction in visibility expected again this morning at KBVO
and KFYV, otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF
period. An increase in high level clouds will occur as the mid-
level ridge gets squeezed by an advancing western trough. A few-
sct afternoon cu are also forecast at all sites as moisture is
cycled around the ridge. Winds remain light southerly.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  61  86  63 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   86  62  86  65 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   87  59  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   87  56  84  58 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   84  54  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   83  55  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   86  60  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   86  58  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
F10   86  60  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   85  61  85  64 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...24

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion