Stab, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

063
FXUS63 KJKL 071903
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
303 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Below normal temperatures and dry weather will persist through
  Monday.
- Temperatures warm to near normal for later in the week with no
  rainfall expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 303 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
Thermometers are rising into the lower and mid 70s across most of
eastern Kentucky at mid-afternoon under some puffy fair-weather
cumulus. While the incoming airmass is quite dry (dew points are
in the 40s to low 50s across most areas), the latest surface
analysis does show a weak surface trough dropping south of the
Ohio River and that may encourage the cumulus to be a little
deeper over the north. The primary driver of our weather, though,
is a seasonably strong surface high off to our west with its ~1026
mb center over northern Iowa.
The subtle surface trough will fill in this evening as the
aforementioned surface high drifts eastward, cresting north of
Cincinnati overnight before lifting northeast across the Lower
Great Lakes and into New England on Monday/Monday night. As the
high passes, dry northwesterly flow over eastern Kentucky this
afternoon will slowly veer northeasterly to easterly on
Monday/Monday night. This will help keep the typical nighttime
valley fog confined mainly to the sheltered mainstem river valleys
tonight. Also, with PWATs not far from 0.5 inch on Monday,
relatively little in the way of even a cumulus field is expected
to develop -- nearly full sunshine should prevail. Fog is likely
again Monday night, though again primarily in the sheltered river
valleys.
In sensible terms, temperatures are near daily highs and will drop
off quickly as the sun sets. Look for low temperatures ranging
primarily in the 40s. A few of the coldest northern hollows could
dip to right around 40F. Expect areas of fog to form in the
sheltered river valleys. Looking ahead to Monday, sunshine will
prevail after any valley fog burns off. Temperatures should top
out in the mid 70s for most. Finally, look for fog to develop once
again in those favored valley locales on Monday night; otherwise,
clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to settle
back into the mid 40s to lower 50s. A few of the coldest hollows
could briefly dip into the lower 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 442 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
A surface high-pressure system will remain in place throughout the
long-term forecast period. Dry weather will accompany this surface
high pressure. Temperatures will begin to warm as flow shifts to a
west-southwesterly direction. Those temperatures will climb back
into more seasonal averages for the remainder of the forecast period.
The period will be dominated by a surface high-pressure system. Dry
weather is to be expected. Temperatures will begin to warm into the
80s for the entire period, with overnight lows falling into the
upper 40s in the more sheltered valleys but largely into the 50s and
low 60s elsewhere.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
VFR conditions are noted area-wide at issuance and are expected to
generally prevail at the TAF sites. A high-base cumulus field is
developing at about 5-6kft AGL and will persist until evening when
it will gradually dissipate with the loss of daytime heating.
Overnight, fog is expected to develop in the typically favored
sheltered valley locales with locally IFR or worse conditions.
While a few wisps of fog cannot be entirely ruled out at the TAF
sites, the fog should largely be confined to the more sheltered
valleys. Winds will remain variable to northerly at around 5 kts
or less through the TAF window.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON

NWS JKL Office Area Forecast Discussion