Staples, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

958
FXUS63 KMPX 201820
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
120 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Chance for storms today and again Sunday afternoon. The risk
for severe weather is very low.
- Next week, drying out with above normal temperatures of highs
the mid 70s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 112 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Today through Sunday...
Early afternoon satellite imagery and surface obs showed mostly
cloudy skies and light winds across the region. Water Vapor imagery
showed a circulation across southern Minnesota, with another one
upstream over the Dakotas.
These circulations will be the main driver in the weather over the
next 48 hours, brining scattered thunderstorms across the Upper
Midwest. Forecast soundings show less instability today compared to
Friday, which translates to less coverage in storms this
afternoon/evening, and a lower risk for heavy rain.
On Sunday, the southern circulation will move east and be replaced
by the one that is currently over the Dakotas. Forecast soundings
show more instability across southern Minnesota as compared to today,
so should see a bit more coverage in the storms tomorrow, and a
chance for some small hail or pockets of heavy rain.
Monday through Friday...
Looking ahead, the main upper level trough currently bringing
clouds and rain chances across the region will take on a more
positive tilt and get sheared out Monday through Tuesday as an
upper level wave crashes upstream. This will lead to decreasing
chances for rain each day to start the week, but can`t completely
rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm.
By Wednesday, confidence in dry weather increases as the upper level
subsidence should overcome any diurnal heating showers, leading to a
flat cumulus field and more sun than clouds. Expect dry weather to
continue the rest of the week, with light winds and mostly sunny
skies heading into the weekend. Temperatures will run above normal
for late September, with highs in the mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 112 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Isolated to scattered rain showers will increase in coverage
this afternoon and continue through sunset, similar to yesterday.
All terminals are expected to see at least a few periods of
rain & possibly MVFR visibility at times, although the duration
of rain with any one shower should be brief. A few rumbles of
thunder are also possible with the strongest showers this
afternoon, but overall the chances for thunder look to be low
except across western Wisconsin.
Ceilings are expected to stay mostly VFR this afternoon but some
brief lowering to MVFR is possible during rain showers. Ceilings
are expected to lower overnight across central Minnesota &
western Wisconsin, with IFR ceilings possible. Patchy fog and
mist is also likely, especially at AXN & STC.
KMSP...Expect at least one or two rain showers this afternoon,
mainly between 4 & 8 PM. Visibility could drop to 2-3 SM with
the heaviest showers. The threat for for a few lightning
strikes looks low (10-20%). Another round of showers and
thunderstorms is possible late Sunday afternoon.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind E 5 kts or less.
TUE...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...ETA

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion