Star, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

504
FXUS64 KJAN 211420 AAB
AFDJAN
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
920 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 919 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Rest of Today...Hot and slightly more humid conditions will exist
across the forecast area again today.  A slightly better coverage of
convection is expected this afternoon due to said increasing
moisture.  Still, the majority of the forecast area will remain dry.
A strong storm or two capable of producing gusty winds can`t be
ruled out.  Otherwise, highs will again warm into the middle 90s
with a few more clouds overhead later in the afternoon.
The ongoing forecast is good shape.  Other than adjusting some
hourly elements of the forecast based on current trends, no major
changes will be made on this morning`s update. /19/
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
The primary weather concern for this week will be the threat for
marginally severe storms impacting northwest portions of the
forecast area Wednesday. Otherwise, significant weather impacts
are generally not expected.
In the near term, low level ridging over the southeast CONUS will
continue to keep things hotter than normal as we finish up the
weekend and go into early next week. Given hot and unstable
conditions and a subtle upper level shortwave trough crossing the
region, scattered showers and a few storms will develop again
later this afternoon, and a stray storm or two may briefly become
strong to severe.
The forecast gets more interesting during the middle of the week.
Global models continue to indicate that a shortwave trough will
amplify and dig southward in the Mississippi Valley region. As
this happens and deep layer flow increases, a developing surface
wave and strengthening warm sector will lower pressures over the
forecast area Wednesday. This could result in a threat for strong
to marginally severe multicell clusters and perhaps a few
supercells if the cold frontal timing and storm initiation
coincide with peak heating. SPC has included northwest portions of
the forecast area in a marginal severe risk for Tue-Tue night,
and can imagine this threat will be extended into Wednesday and
expanded southeast with future outlooks assuming there are no
significant changes in the guidance. We will be including a
similar area in our hazard graphics for local messaging.
Going into late week, the trough should slowly shift east, which
could prolong the potential for beneficial rainfall over eastern
portions of the area as cyclonic flow lingers. By the weekend,
conditions look dry milder on the backside of the trough with
temperatures near typical values for late September. /EC/
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Aside from a few high clouds and light southerly winds, quiet
conditions will prevail across all TAF sites with VFR conditions
prevailing. Isolated SHRA or TSRA are possible after 19Z, but
confidence in impacts from thunder was too low to mention in TAFs
at this time. /CR/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       94  68  92  70 /  30  20  10   0
Meridian      93  67  91  67 /  30  30  10   0
Vicksburg     94  69  92  70 /  20  10  10   0
Hattiesburg   95  68  93  68 /  20  10  10   0
Natchez       93  68  92  69 /  20  10  10   0
Greenville    93  68  92  70 /  20  20  10  10
Greenwood     94  69  92  70 /  30  20  10  10
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
19/

NWS JAN Office Area Forecast Discussion