State University, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

622
FXUS62 KRAH 261807
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
210 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A surface cold front and upper level trough to our west and
northwest will slowly drift into the Carolinas today through the
weekend, resulting in wet and unsettled weather.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 150 PM Friday...
Locally heavy rainfall possible this afternoon and evening,
shifting to the west overnight.
Marginal to Slight Risk (Levels 1-2) of excessive rainfall late this
afternoon and tonight, highest risk in the west.
The main synoptic front will slowly move into the region tonight.
Central NC is in the warm sector with plenty of high PW`s to work
with. Increasing lift later today and this evening will come from
the mid/upper trough and closed low tracking very slowly closer to
the region from the west. The latest CAMS essentially suggest the
southern half of the region will start to have increased showers and
thunderstorms by mid-afternoon. The showers and storms are expected
to shift north and west through sunset driven by outflow boundaries.
Then, the heavy rain threat appears to focus in the western and
possibly central areas in the evening and overnight. Thus, QPF of
0.5 to locally 2+ inches is expected, with a Marginal to Slight Risk
of excessive rainfall (highest over the western third of central NC)
late this afternoon into the overnight. Showers should still be
lingering in the west toward 12z/Saturday, with low stratus and
possibly some fog in the central and east. Lows 65-70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM Friday...
A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for most of the region Saturday
and Saturday night.
The mid level low will continue to drift toward the southern
Appalachians Saturday and Saturday night. The front should settle
over central NC and likely stall. PW`s are expected to continue very
high 160 percent of normal as the mean flow will tap deep moisture
into the mid level low with a low level boundary to provide a focus
for heavy to excessive rainfall. We did not issue a Flood Watch
given the current very dry conditions over most of the region (less
than 10 percent of normal rainfall east of the Triad since August
15). However, if it becomes clearer where the low level boundary and
the axis of heaviest rainfall will likely occur Saturday into
Saturday night, we may very well have to issue a Flood Watch if the
locally 3+ inches continue to be advertised by the models.
With considerable cloudiness, highs should be held into the 70s.
Lows Saturday night should again be 65-70.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 210 PM Friday...
* The main story continues to be potential impacts from a developing
  tropical system for the early to middle part of next week
In general, not much has changed overall regarding our confidence
levels in terms of AL94, which would ultimately be Imelda. The
developing tropical system is presently near eastern Cuba. There is
reasonable agreement that the system will be near the Bahamas on
Sun. Closer to our region, an upper-level trough will still be
present to our west in western NC. There may be a lull in
precipitation for part of Sunday as the deeper moisture shifts north
and east of the trough and a weak dry slot tries to push in from the
west. Storm chances are somewhat uncertain with plenty of clouds
around, especially in the low-levels under a moist NE flow. Best
chances for storms Sun would be in the east.
For the period Sun night through Wed, there is a high degree of
uncertainty still in overall specifics for precipitation, including
timing and amounts, winds, and overall impacts. That said, there
does appear to be three possible scenarios seen in the ensemble data
with the tropical system during this time frame.
Before discussing the three potential tropical scenarios, there may
be a trend toward a slower northward movement by early Mon, with the
ensemble mean placing the center just north of the Bahamas. The
operational GFS is a tad too fast with its northward movement
relative to the mean output, but we shall see. After this time
period is when model guidance and their ensembles diverge and
uncertainly grows. The first scenario would be a northwest curving
track into South Carolina. This outcome would bring periods of heavy
rain across the region and isolated tornadoes early next week late
Mon into Tue. Perhaps an additional consideration tied to this
scenario would be that some guidance suggests the system could
linger over SC through midweek, which could favor a prolonged wet
period. A second scenario would be a northward track directly toward
central and eastern NC. This would bring periods of heavy rain as
well, but also strong, possibly damaging winds and isolated
tornadoes. Finally, a third scenario might be a northward movement,
then an eastward curve staying out at sea. This would bring limited
impacts to central NC. We expect forecast confidence in the track to
greatly increase over the next 24-48 hours, so stay tuned, stay
prepared, and be ready to take action/preparations if necessary.
Beyond Wed, although with marginal confidence, a cooling and drying
trend is favored outside of a lingering system, as a strong
continental high builds south from the Mid-Atlantic.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 145 PM Friday...
Periods of MVFR to IFR conditions with showers and a few
thunderstorms will continue at times later this afternoon through
tonight and Saturday. Low LIFR stratus may develop around 06z-09z
and persist through late morning Saturday.
Looking beyond 18z Saturday, Unsettled weather will hold through at
least Sunday, with a greater-than-usual chance for morning
fog/stratus and scattered to numerous showers and storms. A
potential tropical low may approach the Carolina coast and begin to
affect central NC starting as early as Mon, however uncertainty is
high. Please consult the National Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov
for the latest information.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...Kren
AVIATION...RAH

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion