Sun City West, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

346
FXUS65 KPSR 301708
AFDPSR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1008 AM MST Tue Sep 30 2025
.UPDATE...Updated 18Z Aviation Discussion.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A dry and quiescent weather pattern will persist across the
  forecast area through the rest of this week.
- Temperatures will gradually warm from near normal to slightly
  above normal by the end of this week as a ridge of high pressure
  builds over the Desert Southwest.
- A dry weather system passing north of the region will bring
  breezy conditions and slightly cooler temperatures to the area
  this weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry and benign weather will continue today while the upper-lvl
pattern transitions to quasi- zonal over the forecast area. Latest
mid-lvl wv imagery continues to show dry air filtering into AZ.
There is still plenty of residual sfc moisture left over from
heavy rainfall this past weekend, however the boundary layer will
continue to dry out today as PWAT values fall to around 0.7"-0.8"
and sfc dew points crash into the upper 40s and lower 50s by this
afternoon. This dry pattern will foster mostly sunny skies over
the forecast area today with highs warming back to right around
normal into the low to mid 90s across the lower deserts and mid
80s for much of the higher terrain areas. Another mild night is
expected region-wide with temperatures cooling to the mid 60s and
lower 70s.
Very similar conditions are expected on Wednesday with only minor
changes in the upper-lvl pattern as ridging aloft begins to build
over N MX. Temperatures are still expected to be very close to
seasonal norms Wednesday afternoon under mostly clear skies and
light winds.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ensemble and deterministic models are still in agreement that an
upper-lvl ridge will amplify over the Desert Southwest while a
trough deepens over California and slides into the Great Basin
Thursday into Friday. As this occurs, 500 mb hghts will gradually
increase to around 588-590 dam over our forecast area, resulting
in afternoon highs reaching the mid to upper 90s both Thursday and
Friday. These temperatures are around 3 to 5 degrees above
normal. There is also around a 60-70% chance that high
temperatures will reach 100 degrees in Phoenix both days.
Global models continue to indicate the aforementioned shortwave
trough transitioning to a cutoff low and swinging across the Great
Basin region Friday into Saturday. This will result in a noticeable
uptick in winds with breezy conditions materializing across much of
the region. The strongest winds (>30 mph) will likely reside
across the high country of northern AZ, but winds could still gust
around 20-25 mph across the lower deserts, especially on Friday
afternoon. Due to the trajectory of this system remaining well
north of our forecast area along with any lack of adequate
moisture return, dry conditions with near zero precipitation
chances are expected to persist. 500 mb hghts will lower back to
seasonal ranges by this weekend and into early next week, which
will foster temperatures cooling back to near normal Saturday
through Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...Updated at 1705Z.
South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No aviation weather concerns under mostly clear skies can be
expected throughout the TAF period. Winds will continue to exhibit
the typical diurnal tendencies with speeds aob 10 kts along with
periods of light and variable winds, especially during diurnal
transitions.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No aviation weather concerns under clear skies can be expected
throughout the TAF period. At KIPL, winds will be out of the west
throughout the entire period with speeds generally aob 10 kts,
although some enhanced sundowner winds with occasional gusts in
the 20-25 kt range will be possible for a period early this
evening. At KBLH, winds will generally fluctuate between the south
to southwest with speeds generally aob 12 kts, with occasional
gusts around 20 kts this afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Temperatures will gradually warm above normal through the middle of
this week as a ridge of high pressure builds over the forecast area.
Expect much drier conditions to materialize each day with MinRHs
bottoming out around 25-35% through the end of this week. Overnight
moisture recovery will generally remain in the fair category. Winds
will follow light and diurnal tendencies over the next few days,
however an uptick in afternoon breeziness will be materializing
across the region on Friday and Saturday.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Salerno
LONG TERM...Salerno
AVIATION...Lojero
FIRE WEATHER...Salerno

NWS PSR Office Area Forecast Discussion