Swinney Switch, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

821
FXUS64 KCRP 071124
AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
624 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 621 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
- Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of flash flooding today
- Minor to Moderate Heat Risk for the next several days
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Most of the overnight activity thus far has remain in the western
Brush Country and along the Rio Grande Plains. Storm motions have
been slow (00Z KCRP sfc-6km mean wind at 5 kts) allowing showers
and thunderstorms to dump 1.5-2.5 inch amounts NW of Laredo. For
the remainder of the early morning hours, this upper-level energy
will push further east. CAMS have a secondary area of showers and
thunderstorms developing between 2-4am CDT generally south of a
line from Freer to Corpus Christi. The more aggressive CAMS want
to dump 2-4 inches in the strongest storms wherever the develop.
Soils can still handle a lot of what may fall, but too high of
rainfall rates may lead to brief ponding and nuisance flooding in
low-lying/poor drainage areas. We will continue to monitor these
trends and latest CAM runs to see if any updates are needed to the
forecast. These showers will continue through late-morning before
another batch comes in from the northwest in the afternoon (still
scattered in coverage). Most shower and rain activity wind down
in intensity/coverage after sunset today. With all this in place,
WPC still has all of South Texas in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4)
for Excessive Rainfall today.
Monday`s will see one last batch of showers and thunderstorms move
through the region with highest amounts along the coast. From
Tuesday, shower activity generally remains south of a stalled
front, keeping low chances (15-25%) of PoPs along the coast and
south of the Kingsville area. North of this stalled front, winds
will primarily be out of the east/northeast, bringing in slightly
drier air. This will keep our temperatures under 100F for highs
(with the exception of the northern Brush Country Tuesday and
Wednesday due to min RH`s dropping to near 30%). Areas in the
Victoria Crossroads have the best chance of having low
temperatures on Monday and Tuesday night (near 65F).
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
TEMPO groups for reduced VIS and CIG associated with thunderstorms
remains valid through the period with prevailing groups given
VCTS/VCSH given the scattered nature of overall storm coverage.
Mix of VFR/MVFR today. Northern terminals are the first to drop of
TEMPOs after midnight.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Northeasterly flow increase from gentle (BF 3) to moderate (BF 4)
strength with near 2 ft seas. Similar conditions remain through
the forecast period. Chances for showers and thunderstorms have a
moderate chance (50-70%) of developing today, and remaining low
(around 30% chance) for the remainder for the forecast period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    90  76  90  73 /  70  50  50  10
Victoria          91  71  93  66 /  70  30  10   0
Laredo            93  75  94  73 /  80  60  60  10
Alice             92  73  93  71 /  70  50  50  10
Rockport          90  76  90  75 /  70  60  50  10
Cotulla           91  74  93  73 /  70  40  30   0
Kingsville        91  73  90  71 /  70  50  60  10
Navy Corpus       89  79  88  79 /  70  70  60  20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AE/82
AVIATION...AE/82

NWS CRP Office Area Forecast Discussion