Sylvia, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

671
FXUS63 KICT 121044
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
544 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonable to above average temperatures through Tuesday, with
  a modest cool down by mid next week.
- Increasing shower/storm chances Saturday night through Sunday
  night, and again off-and-on Monday night through next week.
  Locally heavy rain and associated minor flooding concerns
  possible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
PRECIPITATION:
EARLY THIS MORNING...Weak mid-level warm advection and associated
mid-level moistening will support spotty hit-or-miss high-based
showers and perhaps a lone clap of thunder across mainly central and
eastern Kansas through about sunrise or shortly after. Most
locations will remain dry, and severe weather or heavy rainfall is
not expected given very meager instability and effective shear.
SATURDAY NIGHT--SUNDAY NIGHT...A deep western CONUS upper trough
ejecting onto Mid-America and associated increasing precipitable
waters will serve as a focus for increasing shower/thunderstorm
chances. Thinking chances will be highest generally northwest of the
I-35 corridor. Pockets of heavy rainfall and localized minor
flooding will be the primary hazards, as limited instability/shear
should prevent severe storms.
MONDAY NIGHT--FRIDAY...A second ejecting slow-moving deep western
CONUS upper trough will be the focus for additional off-and-on
shower/thunderstorm chances from Monday night on. Thinking chances
will be greatest generally Wednesday through Thursday, when large
scale synoptic forcing is greatest (combination of upper trough and
approaching frontal zone). Once again, limited instability/shear
should prevent severe storms, although locally heavy rainfall and
associated minor flooding concerns are possible.
TEMPERATURES:
Increasing atmospheric thickness and persistent southerly flow ahead
of an approaching deep upper trough will support seasonable to above
average temperatures in the 80s to low 90s through Tuesday. Sunday
will see a slight cool down, especially over central Kansas where
precipitation/clouds will be most prevalent. Wednesday--Friday
should see a modest cool down into the 70s-80s given the increased
clouds/precipitation chances and weak cold frontal passage.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 527 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours across
central, south-central, and southeast Kansas. Weak mid-level
warm advection and associated moistening will support spotty
light showers and/or sprinkles through about 14z this morning,
impacting mainly the SLN TAF site. Otherwise, breezy/gusty south
winds will prevail late this morning through early evening,
especially over central Kansas.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion